TSLA -- short

8 sept. 2023

It looks to me like TSLA will fail to break through both the VWAP since the July high an the top of the declining short-term trading channel. I expect a decline down towards the bottom of the rising intermediate-term trading channel.

Fundamentally, I think that the weakness in Chinese Yuan and the Chinese economy, as well as the price cuts, increasing EV competition from traditional auto makers, and a potential recession in the US will eat into gross margins and USD revenue growth.

This is a short-term trade, which I will express as a vertical put spread with 3 weeks to expiration. My price target is 230, my stop loss will be a close above the declining trend channel since the July high.

14 sept. 2023

Trade fermée: ordre d’arrêt atteint

I'm closing this. The market is reacting really strangely to the rising CPI numbers. I don't have an explanation, but I don't discount the move. It seems that the narrative has shifted to "no more hikes". As skeptical as I am about this, I don't expect a shift in attitude until at least the Fed announcement. Since this was set up as a short-term trade, I don't have time to wait this out.