Long call vertical spread for Twitter 55% PoP

3 mai 2021

Fib 0.78 hit after event, trendline kissed 4 times:



4hr / 1hr TF in oversold territory



Max profit: $500
Probability of Profit: 55%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 56%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200


Req. Buy Power: $882 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 5.5 (relative low)
Expiry: 46 days


Buy 2 TWTR Jun18' 48 Call
Sell 2 TWTR Jun18' 55 Call

Debit Call spread for 4.41db each, because IVR is relative low.


Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the 52.5$ breakeven line, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 200$. Probability of loss in this way: ~25% .

Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 6.1cr each. Probability of profit this way: ~75%.

Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!



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6 mai 2021

Note

Today increased my position.

11 mai 2021

Note

Green dildo pulled back the close price into support zone.
RSI Oversold at all