Controversial CoinBase's IPO, Reporting Season Start, Oil Growth

15 avr. 2021

The CoinBase's IPO was the main event of yesterday. Overall, it is ideal for the formation of the peak of the bubble. But so far, according to its results, the bubble is starting to collapse. On the stock exchange, Nasdaq decided to play it safe and instead of the average price of recent transactions of about $380, it set a reference price of $250 per share. As a result, the market opened at around $380. It can be considered a super success, because a 50% increase relative to the conditionally starting price.

In relation to the prices of previous deals, the growth was, in fact, zero. Well, the day ended at $328. That is, on the one hand, 33% growth relative to the starting price. On the other hand, it is 20% below the maximum levels during the trading session.

The US reporting season began in full yesterday. Banks reported: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo. Overall, the results came out excellent and significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts. The focus was on the issue of reserves. If a year ago banks accrued them in billions and because of this sagged heavily in profits, now everything is happening exactly the opposite: the expectation of a recovery in the US economy unties the banks' hands, and they massively reduce reserves, thus increasing your financial results.

Oil showed a steady growth yesterday. The reasons are official data on oil reserves in the United States (decreased by almost 6 million barrels), as well as updated forecasts for oil demand in 2021 from OPEC and EIA.

OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2021 by 70,000 barrels per day more, and the International Energy Agency - by 230,000 barrels per day, compared with March forecasts. Motivation was based on the success in combating the pandemic will lead to a rapid recovery of the economies of the countries, and the demand for oil will rise. It should be noted how strange and untimely this explanation looks against the background of what is happening in the world.

Today, the world as a whole can update the historical maximum in the number of new cases of diseases, despite the fact that the mark of 750K (!) per day has already been exceeded.

In general, the recent rise in oil is a derivative of expectations, not facts. And the facts, by the way, are such that OPEC Plus will increase production, Iran is already doing this, since it is not constrained by obligations due to sanctions. By the way, the issue of lifting the sanctions is open, and this could add up to 2 million bpd to the oil market. In the USA, the number of active oil rigs has grown by almost 50% over the past six months. In general, everything is far from being as unambiguous as it might seem based on the dynamics of oil prices yesterday.