NASDAQ – Solid Foundation Amid Positive Economic Data

3 déc.

NASDAQ – Solid Foundation Amid Positive Economic Data

The NASDAQ index is finding strong support from favorable U.S. economic data and a stable macroeconomic outlook, particularly benefiting from the resilience of technology and growth sectors. Amid signs of moderating inflation and potential easing by the Federal Reserve, **seasonal trends strongly favor the NASDAQ, as December is historically a strong month for equities, especially tech-heavy indices.

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Key Economic Drivers Supporting the NASDAQ

1. ISM Manufacturing PMI – Signs of Stabilization
- The **ISM Manufacturing PMI** for November rose to **48.4**, exceeding expectations, though still signaling contraction. This reflects progress toward stabilization in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
- Slower input cost inflation and renewed job creation are positive signs for the broader economy, indirectly supporting growth-oriented sectors such as technology.

2. Construction Spending Growth
- Construction spending** increased by **0.4% in October, showcasing resilience in the housing and infrastructure sectors. This strength in spending highlights consumer and government investment, which can indirectly benefit tech companies involved in digital infrastructure and smart technologies.

3. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid – Easing Inflationary Pressures
- The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid** index dropped to **50.3**, significantly below the forecast of **55.2**. This is a positive development for inflation control, signaling moderating cost pressures in the manufacturing sector.
- Implications:
- Positive for equities: Lower inflation reduces the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, a scenario that benefits rate-sensitive growth stocks.
- Stable monetary outlook: A gradual shift toward easing monetary policy supports technology stocks reliant on lower borrowing costs.

4. Fed Officials’ Support for Gradual Easing
- Recent Fed commentary suggests a balanced approach to monetary policy:
- **Christopher Waller** emphasized the possibility of a rate cut in December, citing a balanced labor market and controlled inflation progress.
- **John Williams** forecasted GDP growth of **2.5% in 2024** while reiterating that inflation is expected to return to the 2% target. This fosters confidence in growth-oriented sectors like technology.
- A potential rate cut would be particularly favorable for the NASDAQ, as tech companies are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates.

5. Consumer and Business Optimism
- The **S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI** indicated improving confidence and renewed job creation despite lingering challenges such as reduced international demand. This optimism supports steady sentiment for growth sectors.

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Seasonality and Market Sentiment

Seasonality is a critical tailwind for the NASDAQ at this time. December is traditionally a strong month for the tech-heavy index, supported by holiday-driven consumer spending, portfolio rebalancing, and end-of-year tax strategies. The current **Fear & Greed Index**, standing at **64**, indicates a **greed-driven sentiment**, which typically aligns with upward momentum, especially for high-growth sectors.

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NASDAQ Outlook

The NASDAQ is well-positioned to capitalize on these favorable conditions:
- Easing inflationary pressures reduce the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, which is particularly supportive for rate-sensitive growth stocks.
- Strong GDP growth projections and a resilient labor market provide a stable foundation for tech earnings and innovation-driven sectors.
- Seasonal trends, combined with improving macroeconomic sentiment, create additional momentum for the NASDAQ as the year-end approaches.

While global uncertainties and international demand challenges remain, the NASDAQ's long-term prospects remain **bullish**. Seasonal strength, positive economic data, and the potential for a more accommodative Fed policy stance are all aligning to favor continued gains for the index.