US30 - Rate Cut Uncertainty Drives Market Consolidation

Futures Muted Amid Uncertainty Over Fed Rate Cut Size

Traders are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of a significant rate cut, with the probability of a 50-basis point cut now at 41%, up from 14% last Thursday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley has advocated for a strong case in favor of a 50-bps cut.

Technically:
Currently, the market is likely to test 41,030 before advancing towards 41,340, as it consolidates within the 41,030 to 41,340 range. As long as the price remains above 41,030, it is expected to attempt to reach 41,340. However, closing a 4-hour candle below 41,030 could signal a bearish trend towards 40,810.

Key Levels:

Pivot Point: 41,180
Resistance Levels: 41340, 41550, 41900
Support Levels: 41030, 40800, 40670

Expected Trading Range: 41,030 - 41,340

Trend: Consolidation between 41,030 and 41,340.
Above 41,030 indicates an uptrend, while below 41,030 downtrend.

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