S&P 500 channel (updated)
I expect to see something like this next week. The price breaking out of this orange channel will confirm the beginning of a correction.
Transaction en cours
The price is about to break out of the channel, but I think a pullback to 5730-5760 is possible before the break out.Note
That little fake break out right now wasn't actually a fake break out. I should have drawn this channel a little wider on both sides so that it includes the spike from September 4.Note
Sure, technically it is possible that the price returns to the upper half of the channel and moves to 6000 repeating July scenario. That's what many bulls expect. But considering the current situation it would be a complete manipulation. The conflict in the Middle-East is escalating, dockers are on strike - it's bad for stocks. Even if the NFP report on Friday will be great, I don't see reasons for a rally in October. Nevertheless, bears should be prepared for manipulations. There are two black channel borders above the red curvy line that act as resistance - crossing both of them would invalidate the bearish scenario. Previously I said that a pullback to 5730-5760 is possible - it makes sense, but considering the volatility I see it can spike to these borders at 5785-5815. This week may became crucial for furthere price action, let's see.Note
The price is exactly at the actual border now (as I said earlier, I should have drawn the channel a little wider) - right above the support zone. It's either crash or a rocket from that point.Transaction en cours
The correction has started. I don't know how deep will it be. My first target is the bottom of the green channel (~5550). Also a bounce from the resistance area at 5650 (+-20) is possible to test the bottom of the orange channel (the bottom is slightly lower than shown on the chart). The main idea is that the price won't return inside this orange channel.Note
After making some more analysis I actually think now that we might get a very small correction right now - just to 5650 resistance area. Then there might be a final wave to 5800. And then a big correction.Note
The price is testing the trendline right now (September 11 - October 3 lows). It will go down to the support area today, no doubt. Anyway, this idea is over, I have published a new one, find it in my profile.Note
Ok, maybe not today, but the thing is it can't go higher. Right now the price is testing the bottom of the channel it broke out and moving in a descending channel. This bounce is just a part of a corrective movement.Transaction en cours
So, the correction was even smaller than I expected. The price is in a new growth wave now. The rising wedges on SPX and DJI were broken, but not on Nasdaq yet. The price on Nasdaq has just reached it's wedge upper trendline and we see on this chart that the price on US500 has reached the top of the green channel. I was initially expecting the price going from the top to the bottom of this channel. But, to be honest, seeing the price action, I doubt it now. 100 billion dollars thrown into the stocks by the Fed last week is not a joke. We might see some pullback from here - to the broken rising wedge trendline (not on the chart) or to that lower trendline at 5810. Maybe it will start ranging here between the rising trendlines. I still think that 6000 is a big bull trap, but it doesn't matter much, gotta wait till better entry points higher to increase the short position.Transaction en cours
The price has returned to the lower trendline at 5805. I would definately increase short if it goes below 5805, but I'd like to increase it from the upper trendline which will be above 5900 next week. The price has also returned inside the rising wedge (not on the chart), but I guess we will see another false breakout, and perhaps not one.Note
The price dropped below 5800, but I will not be in a hurry increasing my short position. There is a support area at 5770-5755. Better increase it higher on a bounce or lower with stop losses.
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Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.