USDCAD: Three days short traders on the market, out of balance

22 août

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“Trade setups, not movements”

1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)

• Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
  
• Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
  
• Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
  
• Thursday DAY 2 ✅
  
• Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
  

2. SIGNAL DAY

• First Red Day
  
• First Green Day
  
• 3 Days Long Breakout
  
• 3 Days Short Breakout ✅
  
• Inside Day
  

3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE

• Pump&Dump
  
• Dump&Pump ✅
  
• Frontside
  
• Backside ✅
  

4. THESIS:

• Long: primary, considering the levels (low of the week, July low of the month, low of day), the signal three days breakout short traders in the market, and three session setup which it looks like setting for a long trade, I would be willing to expose risk in this trade after 9:45am PMI news release. Because of MRN, this market can potentially start a move back to the current HOW.
  
• Short: secondary, this kind of signal not necessary lead to a reversal, I will leave the 3 session setup to drive this move.
  

Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni