Weekly gain/loss: - 228 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.3285
Weekly opening price: 1.3282

Weekly view: Despite a beautiful-looking buying tail printed off, what was at the time, support at 1.3381, the market collapsed last week, taking out this level and thus forming a resistance. To our way of seeing things, weekly price action below here looks relatively cramped. The only level that really catches our eye right now is the trendline support taken from the high 1.1278.

Daily view: Down here on the daily chart, nonetheless, support at 1.3295 is currently seen in play this morning. A continuation move north from this neighborhood could send the pair back up to retest the 1.3414 region as resistance. A break below the current support on the other hand, could encourage further downside toward a Quasimodo support marked at 1.3139.

H4 view: USD/CAD bulls went on the offensive early on in this morning’s trade, forcing price to connect with a mid-way resistance level coming in at 1.3350. Should offers be squeezed from this region, the next upside objective falls in at the 1.34 psychological resistance, shadowed closely by a supply zone at 1.3434-1.3412 that houses both November and December’s opening levels at 1.3425/1.3419.

Direction for the week: According to the daily candles, there’s scope for further buying toward resistance at 1.3414, whereas weekly price suggests prices may halt before this around the 1.3380 hurdle. Therefore, our team expects to see some appreciation but do not imagine prices extending much past the 1.34 area.

Direction for today: 1.3350 looks vulnerable as a resistance especially considering the fact that it is currently positioned against daily flow. Although a small bounce could be seen from here, we believe it will likely give way sometime today and send the H4 candles up to the 1.34 handle.

Our suggestions: With the above points in mind, our team will not be selling from 1.3350. Also, our team has noted that they will not be buying above 1.3350 considering the risk of price reacting from the weekly resistance level at 1.3381. What we are interested in, nevertheless, is a fakeout through the 1.34 handle into the H4 supply at 1.3434-1.3412. Not only does it hold two Monthly open levels, it also houses the aforementioned daily resistance barrier and sits just above the weekly resistance level mentioned above. In light of this confluence, our team feels comfortable enough to place a pending sell order at 1.3417, with a relatively small stop above the H4 supply at 1.3437.

Data points to consider today: FOMC member Dudley speaks at 1.30pm, ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm, FOMC member Bullard speaks at 7.05pm GMT.

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