ANALYSIS: USDCAD: 2 Bearish Gartley's Point The Way Down

3 juil. 2015

6 days ago, I published a potential Gartley developing.

Now here we are. Prices have ALMOST reached the Gartley I had mentioned in the previous post. ALMOST because prices have not reached the D point of the .786 Gartley at 1.26380 yet.(the high of current PA is 1.26322). So DON'T jump the gun! This Gartley is not yet completed.

The Gartley I posted is a .786 Gartley (blue). However, someone else (see Akil's post under "Related Ideas" ) posted another Gartley (a 1.272 Gartley) that makes more sense. So I have published both Gartley's here. The 1.272 Gartley (also can be called a .886 Gartley) if filled would also contain a AB=CD harmonic pattern (as pointed out by another poster here, Ivan Labrie).

WAVE COUNT ANALYSIS

By my wave count, we are in the wave C of the larger ABC corrective wave 2. The wave 2 is part of a larger 5 wave impulse leg down.

Within the wave C where we are now, by my count we are in wave (iv) of 5 waves up. For the short-term, question is...when and where will wave (iv) down end and wave (v) up begin?


CONCLUSION: For now, I am on the sidelines waiting to see how thing unfold. Most likely, prices are still heading down more in wave (iv). After wave (iv) has concluded, I'll see if there is a good reason to take a long position to catch wave (v) up which would be a good trend trade. Then prices have reached the .786 Gartley D point, I'll wait to see how prices react and either take a short position or wait for the 1.272 Gartley to fill.