Hong Kong Dollar Strengthens on Rate Spike
This is an excerpt from MACRO BRIEF: Hong Kong Dollar Strengthens on Rate Spike originally published March 10, 2019.
The short-HKD trade is nearly consensus, which reminds me of the short-yuan trade a few years ago that was largely snuffed out by the PBOC.
Problem here, though, is the HKMA's attempts to draw in HKD inflows have been superficial at best. Additionally, with China likely continuing using Hong Kong as a dollar ATM it is hard to estimate how long the strength would last.
The 3.7 sigma move has pulled in quite a bit but still remains extended. 7-day ROC saw its largest spike since December when the HIBOR 1M and 3M futures converged.
We'll continue to monitor the situation, but prolonged elevation of rates could be a problem considering that Hong Kong's economy is strongly interest rate sensitive with banking assets and domestic credit to public sector as a percentage of GDP at well over 200 percent.
To access original charts and commentary on this blog post click here.
The short-HKD trade is nearly consensus, which reminds me of the short-yuan trade a few years ago that was largely snuffed out by the PBOC.
Problem here, though, is the HKMA's attempts to draw in HKD inflows have been superficial at best. Additionally, with China likely continuing using Hong Kong as a dollar ATM it is hard to estimate how long the strength would last.
The 3.7 sigma move has pulled in quite a bit but still remains extended. 7-day ROC saw its largest spike since December when the HIBOR 1M and 3M futures converged.
We'll continue to monitor the situation, but prolonged elevation of rates could be a problem considering that Hong Kong's economy is strongly interest rate sensitive with banking assets and domestic credit to public sector as a percentage of GDP at well over 200 percent.
To access original charts and commentary on this blog post click here.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.