Watching for 106.50 to break
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation. April so far has been pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Demand from 105.70/106.66 received price action on Tuesday after consolidating south of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 108.28 since mid-April. Wednesday, as you can see, continued to flirt with the upper boundary of the noted demand.
Should the said demand abandon its position, we can look forward to demand plotted at 100.68/101.85 eventually making an appearance.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The week has witnessed a bearish pennant pattern between 106.92/108.07 take hold of H4 action after having its lower boundary taken out at the beginning of the week. Traditionally, take-profit targets are formed by measuring the preceding move (109.38-106.92) and adding this value to the breakout point (black arrows – 104.89).
In recent sessions, we’ve also seen demand at 106.75/107.22 surrender its position, indicating the possibility of fresh moves emerging to demand at 105.75/105.17.
H1 timeframe:
After establishing resistance off 108 on April 23, intraday movement has since been entrenched within a descending channel pattern between 108.04/107.04.
Aside from an early sell-off Wednesday, the session echoed a somewhat lacklustre tone off 106.50. Newly formed supply exists around 106.90/106.80, along with nearby channel resistance seated just south of the base. Above these levels, demand-turned supply at 106.99/107.16, an area which houses the round number 107 and the 100-period simple moving average (SMA), is also clearly visible. Sub 106.50, however, traders will be looking for 106 to surface.
Structures of Interest:
Daily price recently crossed paths with demand at 105.70/106.66, though bulls have yet to make a show.
The H4 close out of the current bearish pennant pattern and recent break of demand at 106.75/107.22 has potentially cleared downside to H4 demand from 105.75/105.17. Going forward, therefore, traders may watch for 106.50 to give up ground on the H1 timeframe for possible bearish themes to 106 and beyond.
A test of H1 supply at 106.90/106.80 could also be something to keep an eye out for. Whipsawing through channel resistance in order to reach the said zone may trip buy stops, consequently providing liquidity for short selling.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation. April so far has been pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Demand from 105.70/106.66 received price action on Tuesday after consolidating south of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 108.28 since mid-April. Wednesday, as you can see, continued to flirt with the upper boundary of the noted demand.
Should the said demand abandon its position, we can look forward to demand plotted at 100.68/101.85 eventually making an appearance.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The week has witnessed a bearish pennant pattern between 106.92/108.07 take hold of H4 action after having its lower boundary taken out at the beginning of the week. Traditionally, take-profit targets are formed by measuring the preceding move (109.38-106.92) and adding this value to the breakout point (black arrows – 104.89).
In recent sessions, we’ve also seen demand at 106.75/107.22 surrender its position, indicating the possibility of fresh moves emerging to demand at 105.75/105.17.
H1 timeframe:
After establishing resistance off 108 on April 23, intraday movement has since been entrenched within a descending channel pattern between 108.04/107.04.
Aside from an early sell-off Wednesday, the session echoed a somewhat lacklustre tone off 106.50. Newly formed supply exists around 106.90/106.80, along with nearby channel resistance seated just south of the base. Above these levels, demand-turned supply at 106.99/107.16, an area which houses the round number 107 and the 100-period simple moving average (SMA), is also clearly visible. Sub 106.50, however, traders will be looking for 106 to surface.
Structures of Interest:
Daily price recently crossed paths with demand at 105.70/106.66, though bulls have yet to make a show.
The H4 close out of the current bearish pennant pattern and recent break of demand at 106.75/107.22 has potentially cleared downside to H4 demand from 105.75/105.17. Going forward, therefore, traders may watch for 106.50 to give up ground on the H1 timeframe for possible bearish themes to 106 and beyond.
A test of H1 supply at 106.90/106.80 could also be something to keep an eye out for. Whipsawing through channel resistance in order to reach the said zone may trip buy stops, consequently providing liquidity for short selling.
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