USD/JPY reverses ahead of the March low (129.65) to bounce along the 50-Day SMA (133.24), while the 10-Year US Treasury yield rises for the third consecutive day after registering a fresh yearly low (3.25%) earlier this month.

Recent developments in the correlation coefficient point to a further decoupling as the indicator reflects a negative slope and sits at a negligible reading of +0.30.

USD/JPY Outlook

Unlike US yields, USD/JPY may attempt to retrace the decline from the March high (137.91) as it clears the opening range for April to register a fresh monthly high (133.87).

USD/JPY may push towards the 136.00 (23.6% Fibonacci expansion) handle as it trades back above the 50-Day SMA (133.24), but failure to hold above the moving average may lead to a test of the monthly low (130.63).

Additional Resources

USD/JPY rate clears April opening range ahead of US CPI

--- Written by David Song, Strategist

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