USDJPY...Continues to decline....

126
Based on the analysis of USDJPY's technical setup, here's a structured trade plan:

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### *USDJPY Short Trade Plan*
*Trigger:* Consolidation below 148.90 (e.g., closing below on 4H/daily chart).
*Entry:* After confirmed breakdown, ideally with a retest of 148.90 as resistance.
*Target:* 147.00 (190-pip downside).
*Stop Loss:* 50-70 pips above entry (e.g., 149.40–149.60 to account for volatility).
*Risk-Reward Ratio:* ~1:3 to 1:4 (favorable).

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### *Key Technical Rationale*
1. *Price Action:*
- Rejection from 151.00 resistance (bearish structure).
- Breakdown below 148.90 support confirms bearish continuation.

2. *Indicators:*
- *Alligator:* Lips (green) crossing below Jaw (blue) signals trend reversal.
- *MACD:* Cross below 0-line confirms bearish momentum acceleration.

3. *Target Validation:*
- 147.00 aligns with prior swing lows and Fibonacci extensions (61.8% retracement from recent rally).

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### *Risks to Consider*
- *False Breakdown:* Watch for a swift reclaim of 148.90 (stop hunt).
- *BoJ Intervention:* Risk of yen-buying intervention if JPY weakens sharply.
- *Upcoming Data:* U.S. CPI/Jobs data or BoJ policy shifts could disrupt the setup.

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### *Execution Tips*
- Wait for *price confirmation* (e.g., two consecutive closes below 148.90).
- Monitor MACD histogram for strengthening bearish momentum.
- Hedge with a long JPY basket (e.g., short AUDJPY/GBPJPY) to diversify risk.

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*Final Note:* This trade aligns with bearish technicals, but stay agile given macro risks. Adjust stops if fundamentals shift.

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