USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up

14 janv.

Explore the unfolding story of USDJPY in our latest technical analysis! Japan's Current Account growth fell short of expectations, printing at ¥1,925.6 billion in November. Despite markets anticipating ¥2,385.1 billion, the actual figure raised concerns. With expectations of the BoJ maintaining its ultra-dovish stance, we analyze how this might impact the JPY's upside potential.

The upcoming week brings Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for December, adding a layer of anticipation. Meanwhile, across the Pacific, the US Producer Price Index for final demand dipped 0.1% in the last month. This decline, coupled with service prices remaining unchanged, has heightened expectations of lower inflation in the future. Traders are now factoring in a 79% chance of a March rate cut, up from 73% on Thursday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

USDJPY Technical Analysis:
As highlighted in the video, the recent upward pressure is beginning to ease, and the odds of USD pulling back further still exist. However, only persistent trading above 144.800 will validate an uptrend continuation. In this video, we conducted an in-depth technical analysis of the USDJPY chart, carefully examining the current bullish market structure. Our primary focus is within the key zone of 144.000/144.800, which will serve as our center of focus ahead of the upcoming week. The key level becomes an area of interest as continued buying pressure above this zone could incite a clear uptrend. The market's reaction around this area at the beginning of the new week will heavily influence the trajectory of price action in the days to come.

Join me on this journey as we explore potential trading opportunities using trendlines, key levels, and chart patterns. Be sure to stay connected to my channel, follow my updates, and actively engage in the comment section as we navigate the dynamic USDJPY market together.

Wishing you the best of luck as you chart your course in the USDJPY market this week.
#USDJPY #technicalanalysis #tradingopportunities #inflation #monetarypolicy #Fed #interestrates #economicanalysis #Forextrading

Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.

It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.

Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.

Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.

15 janv.

Transaction en cours

📈 Starting the new week on a bullish note, the pair is trading above the key level at 144.800 and the ascending trendline, signaling potential buying opportunities despite the recent dip in the US Dollar. Today's market is anticipated to remain subdued due to the US bank holiday.

🌐 It's essential to consider the prospect of the Federal Reserve (Fed) initiating interest rate cuts, which might limit the upside potential and pose a challenge for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain its ultra-loose policy stance.

⚖️ Currently, our focus remains on identifying buying opportunities, unless there's a breakdown/retest of the key zone at 144.800. Stay tuned for market updates as we navigate this landscape.

Good Morning

16 janv.

Transaction en cours

📈 Safeguard all active buy positions as the USD/JPY pair confidently maintains positive ground above the 146.00 barrier in the Asian session. The pair's upward momentum is fueled by the broader strength of the US Dollar.

📊 Today's data from the Statistics Bureau of Japan revealed a notable growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI), showcasing a 0.3% month-on-month increase in December, surpassing the 0.2% in November and beating the estimated 0%. On an annual basis, the PPI remained steady in December, maintaining the previous month's 0.3% rise and surpassing the anticipated 0.3% fall.

🏦 Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizes the crucial need to sustain the ultraloose monetary policy while awaiting additional data to gauge the persistence of inflation. He further indicates the central bank's commitment to abandon the negative rate when confident in achieving sustainable 2% inflation.

⚙️ As we navigate the current landscape, market participants eagerly anticipate Tuesday's US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for potential market shifts. Additionally, insights into further monetary policy stances might be unveiled later in the day by the Federal Reserve's Christopher J. Waller.

Good Morning

16 janv.

Transaction en cours

#USDJPY

UPDATE

Safeguard all buy positions as the ascending trendline continue to guide our bullish perspective.

17 janv.

Transaction en cours

Our position on USDJPY have proven to be exceptionally lucrative, emerging as the most profitable among the financial assets on our watchlist for this week. With a minimum of four buy positions, totalling a substantial 800 pips in profit, it's time to take proactive measures to safeguard our gains.

The Japanese Yen is currently experiencing a significant downturn, plummeting to its lowest levels. This trend is fueled by prevailing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will postpone its plan to shift away from its ultra-dovish stance. Factors such as a recent devastating earthquake in central Japan, declining rates of inflation in Tokyo, and weak wage data collectively contribute to the ongoing depreciation of the JPY.

Adding to this, the USD remains on a strong buying spree, amplified by the hawkish remarks made overnight by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller. These remarks have prompted investors to reconsider and scale back their expectations for a rate cut in March, further bolstering the USD's position.

As we navigate these dynamic market conditions, our attention is now directed towards the upcoming US Retail Sales data and speeches by FOMC members. These events are poised to provide a fresh impetus to the market, shaping our next moves in this ever-evolving landscape.

Good Morning.

18 janv.

Transaction en cours

After accruing over 800 pips in profit from multiple buy entries, our positions have been closed out as price action breaks down the initial ascending trendline and consolidates near a multi-week high. While the market outlook remains bullish, the current bearish movement is likely attributed to profit-taking activities. Expectations of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintaining its dovish stance in January continue to weigh on the JPY, as reduced bets for a March Fed rate cut and elevated US bond yields provide a supportive backdrop for the USD.

Despite the prevailing optimism, a substantial appreciation of the JPY appears challenging, given the growing consensus that the Bank of Japan will not abandon its negative interest rate policy this month. The release of positive US Retail Sales data on Wednesday further diminishes expectations for a March Fed rate cut, bolstering the Greenback. Additionally, the recent widening of the US-Japan rate differential may contribute to capping gains for the JPY while limiting the downside for the USD/JPY pair. Our trading activities today will be guided by the structures on the 1-hour timeframe, with a focus on identifying potential buying opportunities. A breakdown/retest of the second trendline could, however, prompt consideration of selling opportunities.

Good Morning

19 janv.

Trade fermée manuellement

All buy positions are now closed due to a sudden resurgence in selling pressure. As Japanese consumer inflation aligns with expectations, market sentiments favor the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintaining its ultra-dovish stance. Today's released data confirming Japan's eased inflation supports the view that the BoJ will delay its pivot away from the dovish policy. The positive tone in equity markets weakens the JPY's safe-haven appeal, while reduced odds of aggressive Fed policy easing boost US Treasury bond yields, widening the US-Japan rate differential and diverting flows from the JPY.
Currently, the apparent downward pressure this morning seems more like a myth to me. In light of this recent development, it's crucial to exercise patience and caution in seeking significant trading opportunities before committing to any positions. The overall market outlook remains bullish, we will utilize the identified level on the 1H timeframe as a guide for today's trading activities, considering that market participants will soon be wrapping up the week's trading ahead of the weekend.

Happy Friday!

19 janv.

Transaction en cours

Secure sell positions as buying pressure resumes