Weekly analysis before the NFP

Currently, I see a potential channel, and the price right now is precisely at the upper channel line.
If the market needs a retracement or maybe a reversal while waiting for the NFP data this week, I reckon USDJPY at least has to fall to the Moving Average 50.

I don't know if the price will break above the upper channel line; what I know is this price zone has the best risk-reward ratio since it is precisely on the upper channel line.

The NFP data might change the outcome of this analysis, maybe USDJPY will break the upper channel line, or perhaps it will keep falling to retest the bottom channel line; time will tell.

Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breaks above the upper channel line.