USDJPY Triangle Thrust Down

23 juil. 2016

Weak dollar move on the hourly timeframe anticipated. Based on:
Preceding Bullish trend up form lows near 100
Final rally into the highs in a 3 wave pattern (7 overlapping data swings with no clear impulse 3-of-3 milestone center) labeled wave B up.
Sharp counter trend move from the highs creating an obvious impulsive pattern labeled wave iii of C down.
Resulting sideways price action bounded so far by converging trendlines - implying a triangle.
Triangle implies that the next price move will be the final wave of a sequence within the same degree.
Non violation of potential wave i of C down - implying an impulsive wave structure is still in tact with for a pattern completion of wave C down.
RSI made new lows on July 21 implying that there may be remaining momentum to carry prices to lower lows below 105.
RSI trending up within a tight channel below bearish oscillation zone high of 65 with either 5 or 7 momentum swings visible.

Support target based on tight Fibonacci support confluence cluster at 104.3

Could also be wave C of a larger triangle structure - meaning that 104 may not be realized as a target in this timeframe.

Stop in below break of rising triangle trendline.
Do not enter within the current triangle structure due to potential A-triangle B-C structure potential before strong Bear move begins.

26 juil. 2016

Note

Target hit and price is respecting both a descending channel, and the Fib confluence support target (cropping wicks).
That was a 3:1 reward if you entered in just below the break of the ascending trendline of what turned out to be a triangle-ish pattern.
Clean 5 wave C leg impulse pattern on the exit.

Momentum now rolling up with 5 waves up showing on the 15 min chart.
Look to enter long on shorter timeframe 5 and 10 min charts as long as wave c lows aren't taken out. Cancel all shorts.