USDJPY -> Short

10 mars 2021

Chart: Day
Chart pattern: Descending triangle

Fundamental:
Powell said the recent increase in treasury yields had caught his attention. He seemed to be calm.
But look at Fed's bond purchase...

Average monthly purchase (July2020-Jan2021): 79.8B
January: 72.7B
February3-March3: 95.2B

It seems Fed is not really calm about the recent increase in yields...

11 mars 2021

Transaction en cours

Technical:
- Reached the upper line of descending triangle.
- Fibonacci retracement 61.8%@108.23 and 76.4%@109.56.

Fundamental:
- Real interest rate (US10Y - BEI) keeps increasing -> Higher borrowing cost for companies.
- CPI was 1.3% (lower than the consensus and the previous).
- Fed is buying more long-term bonds to control treasury yields.

In my opinion, stock market can possibly crash (bubble burst).
Institutional investors will switch from stocks to USD and bonds.
Yields will go down and US10 bond will be negative. What Fed will do? Print money... Now I know why company managements are selling their stocks...
Many retail investors have not noticed this scenario yet.