USDJPY: long-term picture

18 janv. 2017

I would like to long "USDJPY" because the price is likely to make new high after correction.
After second half of the year, I will change my strategy from long to short.
Analysis:
1) Price is moving in wave {B}-(C)-3.
2) Price shows alternation between subwaves 2 and 4.
- subwave 2: sharp correction (more than 78.6% retracement of subwave 1)
- subwave 4: sideways correction (at least 23.6% retracement of subwave 3)
3) 14-day slow stochastic oscillator shows positive correlation with the price action.
- Crossing back above the oversold 20 line can be used as a buy signal.
4) Price is above the cloud. The picture is still bullish. Thicker cloud should provide great support.
5) 23.6%-38.2% retracement level looks like a good buy zone.
6) 2.618 extension level: (C)=2.618(A) looks like a reasonable upside target.
- It also lines up with 2016 high when BOJ decided negative interest rate policy.

Let's see how it goes!

27 janv. 2017

Note

Weekly chart:

28 févr. 2017

Note

Today's and yesterday's simple moving average of previous n bars:
MA(0) = {P(0) + P(1) + ... + P(n-2) + P(n-1)}/n
MA(1) = {P(1) + P(2) + ... + P(n-1) + P(n)}/n
Subtraction:
MA(0) - MA(1) = {P(0) - P(n)}/n
From MA(0) - MA(1) = {MA(0) - MA(1)}/1,
MA(0) - MA(1) can be regarded as the slope of tangent line.
Definition of Momentum:
Mom(0) = P(0) - P(n)
Conclusion:
Momentum is proportionate to the gradient of simple moving average.