US Dollar Index Macro View 08/12

8 déc. 2018

Past week, 10 year Treasury rates dropped below 2.9% which will concerns about inflation and growth. No agreements will be made in the next 90 days for the next round of tariffs. Unemployment Claims increased, ADP reported smaller than expected rise in employment and Challenger Job Cuts y/y job cuts rose 51.5% in November. Trade balance also widened but factory orders and durable goods fell. ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 60.7 from 60.3 but the employment component of the report declined. Friday Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Non-Farm Employment Change have both decrease while Unemployment Rate remains the same. Job growth slowed than improved in the month of November. ADP report significantly lower employment change but jobless claims increased, consumer confidence is down and most importantly, the employment component of the service sector activity report fell. While stocks fell sharply over the past 2 months, the US labor market are affected as business may have grown conservative about hiring.

The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12280 & 12200 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12200 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.

Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

12 déc. 2018

Note

Trump’s comment on ‘he was "close" to doing something on trade with China’ and Fed policy boosted the odds of a trade deal between US and China. Together with the release of upbeat yesterday’s US PPI m/m data which leads to a greenback gained on the US Dollars.
Today’s US Core CPI forecasted to maintain at 0.2% while US CPI is expected to be 0%. Core PPI increased 0.3% from a month earlier and rose 2.7% in the 12 months through November.

Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.