FOREX, ruble, August and Jaroslaw Kosaty
The fact that there was no fundamental force majeure yesterday led to the “calm” Wednesday. In fact, the last statistics outcome prepared in line with forecasts as well as UK inflation rate. After crossing the new local Minimum yesterday, the pound “changed the situation” in the afternoon. So, we recommend looking for points for its buying.
Traditionally we cannot but mention Mr Trump’s Twitter account which he uses as “negotiation table”. “We have a long way to go as far as tariffs where China is concerned, if we want. We have another $325 billion we can put a tariff on, if we want,” Trump said. As the result Gold at 1430. So, we recoomend to sell gold from these points, and buy it from these 1400.
As for the Russian ruble sellings. Well, August is not “the luckiest” month for the ruble. “ August's” Force majeure situations, as well as fundamental negative have affected the ruble. Start with the August Coup (1991) and default (1998) to Kursk submarine disaster and Russian-Georgian (2008) and Russian-Ukrainian wars (2014). In this light, Jaroslaw Kosaty, a currency strategist at Poland’s largest bank, sees the currency sinking about 9% against the dollar by the end of the year. His forecast of 69 rubles per dollar. The reason is that Bank of Russia’s switch to monetary easing. Therefore we recommend selling Russian ruble.
The Federal Reserve abandoned foreign-exchange-market intervention. Recall that a strong dollar is on Trump’s way. As a result, his verbal attacks are becoming more aggressive and let the markets suspect that the United States will move from something in mind to something in kind. Treasury can intervene without the Federal Reserve's agreement (2000). We are waiting to see if it happens again. But the rick factor exists. The most interesting trading option is short dollar. Therefore, we continue to recommend looking for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market.
Our trading preferences for today are as follows: sell US dollar, oil, ruble and gold, but buy the pound.
Traditionally we cannot but mention Mr Trump’s Twitter account which he uses as “negotiation table”. “We have a long way to go as far as tariffs where China is concerned, if we want. We have another $325 billion we can put a tariff on, if we want,” Trump said. As the result Gold at 1430. So, we recoomend to sell gold from these points, and buy it from these 1400.
As for the Russian ruble sellings. Well, August is not “the luckiest” month for the ruble. “ August's” Force majeure situations, as well as fundamental negative have affected the ruble. Start with the August Coup (1991) and default (1998) to Kursk submarine disaster and Russian-Georgian (2008) and Russian-Ukrainian wars (2014). In this light, Jaroslaw Kosaty, a currency strategist at Poland’s largest bank, sees the currency sinking about 9% against the dollar by the end of the year. His forecast of 69 rubles per dollar. The reason is that Bank of Russia’s switch to monetary easing. Therefore we recommend selling Russian ruble.
The Federal Reserve abandoned foreign-exchange-market intervention. Recall that a strong dollar is on Trump’s way. As a result, his verbal attacks are becoming more aggressive and let the markets suspect that the United States will move from something in mind to something in kind. Treasury can intervene without the Federal Reserve's agreement (2000). We are waiting to see if it happens again. But the rick factor exists. The most interesting trading option is short dollar. Therefore, we continue to recommend looking for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market.
Our trading preferences for today are as follows: sell US dollar, oil, ruble and gold, but buy the pound.
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