Scalp in 3.60-4.00 trough, then upshot

26 févr. 2017

Price movements in 2011 2012 indicate the upward movement fibonacci levels.
Movements in 2012, 2013, 2014 (not shown) also reinforce these levels except that the adjacent fibonacci levels are overcome by the more salient 3.00 and 4.00 points on the move upwards.

Fundamentals are in favor of DXY and USD dollar with pro-business, pro-employment Trump and pro-dollar Yellen.

Fundamentals are against the Turkish Lira because of the nearby arab springs, Syrian refugee crisis, a change in the system or governance that may lead to loss of confidence of the western investors intermediated by a perceived loss in the rule of law.

26 févr. 2017

Note

First observe the fibonacci levels indicated in 2011 serve as the ceiling and eventual floor.

Fundamentals are against the Turkish Lira with nearby Arab Springs potentially also targeting Turkey, neighboring Syrian crisis with ceaseless immigration, suiting up for a change in governance/election structure. These are apt to reduce western investor confidence in TRY denominated assets thus disfavoring the currency.

Reversion to the mean trades in the 3.60-4.00 range as the central bank takes measures of varying strength. Break out to 4.52 with potential slowdown at 4.38.

If this movement from 3.6 to 4.0 is similar to that we have seen in 2.75-3.00 then we can expect a 285 "trading days" in between, but it will likely be sooner probably shortly after the referendum scheduled in April. Reversion to 3.6 possible in the interim until after 4.0 is confirmed and surpassed at which point the upward movement of the Turkish Lira is well poised to continue.