2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 8 (1.682 BTC)
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
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Today was another very productive day. I spent about an hour talking with someone from Tyler Jenks hyperwave Telegram group, of which I am also a member, about the underlying fundamentals going on in Turkey that could be leading to the massive hyperwave the Lira is experiencing.
He seemed convinced that it is all due to the Qatar-Turkey pipeline and after our discussion I am strongly inclined to agree.
“In 2012 an analyst cited by Ansa Mediterranean suggested that Qatar's involvement in the Syrian Civil War was based in part on its desire to build a pipeline to Turkey through Syria:
The discovery in 2009 of a new gas field near Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, and Syria opened new possibilities to bypass the Saudi Barrier and to secure a new source of income.” (1)
The Lira broke out of phase 1 in 2013 and according to Tyler Jenks this signals a major economic shift (when a hyperwave follows). From my understanding Turkey was allied with Russia for their energy needs and in 2012 they went all in on a pipeline that would help them become more self-sustaining and less reliant on Russia.
The United States and European Union were likely all to willing to help in order to cut into Russia’s economy and worldwide influence.
Turkey housed Syrian refugees and made political alignments with the EU and United States that likely alienated them from Russia. That was okay though because in exchange for housing Syrian refugees they expected to become a member of the EU.
“The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry”
Now it seems like the EU is reneging on their end of the deal, for one reason or another. Turkey is threatening to kick out the Syrian refugees and it seems like the Turks could find themselves without any allies, without a pipeline and with refugees that they likley cannot afford to support for much longer. Meanwhile their currency is experiencing hyperinflation and it appears that it will only get worse.
Now I have 15 minutes until pool league starts and hopefully that will leed to some lighter conversation!
Open Positions
Long: XBTM19
*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%
*1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven
Price: $3,727
Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven.
Leverage: 10X
Exposure: $3,541
Margin: 0.957 BTC
Unrealized PnL: +0.0369 BTC
Realised PnL: -0.001 BTC
Long: USDTRY
Price: $5.55804
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.131 BTC
Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge.
Long: USDZAR
*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8%
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%)
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position.
Price: $14.48
Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000)
Margin: 0.0157 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.057 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.0531 BTC
Notes: Flat L MA leaves some discretion. Could choose to scale out 75% (holding onto 25% due to golden cross) or I could choose to only scale out 50%. I chose the latter due to being at horizontal support. The very bullish 200 MA gives me confidence in this position. I have set a stop for the rest of the position at $13.49.
Long: USDHUF
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at $279.33 for remainder of position
*1/8/19 SCALE OUT: Have been waiting for price to move in my favor so that I can decrease exposure due to mistake I made when entering.
Price: $282.66
Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 | Max calculated risk = 0.1632 BTC
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.042 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.039 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.0866 BTC
Notes: Made mistake of entering 0.8 lots ($80,000) instead of 0.08 lots ($8,000) and have been waiting / hoping for price to move in my favor so that I could remedy that mistake. Go a bounce today that allowed me to re evaluate my risk. By scaling out of 75% of the position I have limited my risk to 7.5% of my bankroll for this challenge and that is much more acceptable.
Short: SPX500
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50%
Price: $2,472.62
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276)
Margin: 0.0586 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.2226 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC
Notes: Like seeing the L MA hold as resistance and the doji that is resulting. Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge.
Short: EURUSD
*1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at 1.1501 for remainder of position
Price: 1.13387
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4%
Leverage: 100:1
Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000)
Margin: 0.063 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.066 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC
Notes: Consensio is telling me to fully scale out. However we are currently at horizontal and trend resistance. Therefore I set a stop loss order slightly above resistance. That is only 0.3% away from my current price and the difference between exiting now and then would be nominal. However the difference of being able to hold onto my position and not capitalize on a big loss, in the event resistance holds, is very significant. Therefore I much prefer the risk:reward of a market stop loss at 1.1501 instead of exiting now at 1.1475.
Open Orders
Stop Market to long 0.82288 XBTH19 @ $4,037. Reason for entry is Consensio + that would be TL breakthrough. Also like how strong support is holding after the last pump.
Stop Market to long ETHUSD @ $160.20. Reason for entry is Consensio being fully bullish and $160 being boundary line for c&h + ascending triangle
Stop Market to short XAUUSD @ $1,274.89. Reason for entry is that would create a lower low and break down parabolic advance.
Watchtower
BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR.
ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r.
Currently have stop order set to long at $160.2.
*1/8/19: Price re entering cloud after kumo breakthrough + Kumo Twist. Watching for support at $125.
LTCUSD: Close > TL + boundary line of c&h / ascending triangle. Testing top of cloud + bullish kumo twist. I could enter a stop entry now, but I prefer to wait for a close above the daily cloud.
XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below.
XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weely chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross.
USDCAD: Really like seeing these hard / fast pullbacks when the enter a confluence of support. The Canadian Dollar is currently testing prior highs for horizontal support and the trendline waits right below. The L MA is very bullish and is also apart of this cluster of support. Being this far away from the S & M MA’s is a strong indication of short term oversold conditions. The only problem is that it could take a while before Consensio signals an entry.
EURUSD: Formed h&s and then whipsawed everyone who tried to trade it. Now it appears to be forming a bear flag below major resistance. It is also support above the 200 week MA and trying to reverse that 5 year bear trend.
Sources:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar–Turkey_pipeline
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Today was another very productive day. I spent about an hour talking with someone from Tyler Jenks hyperwave Telegram group, of which I am also a member, about the underlying fundamentals going on in Turkey that could be leading to the massive hyperwave the Lira is experiencing.
He seemed convinced that it is all due to the Qatar-Turkey pipeline and after our discussion I am strongly inclined to agree.
“In 2012 an analyst cited by Ansa Mediterranean suggested that Qatar's involvement in the Syrian Civil War was based in part on its desire to build a pipeline to Turkey through Syria:
The discovery in 2009 of a new gas field near Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, and Syria opened new possibilities to bypass the Saudi Barrier and to secure a new source of income.” (1)
The Lira broke out of phase 1 in 2013 and according to Tyler Jenks this signals a major economic shift (when a hyperwave follows). From my understanding Turkey was allied with Russia for their energy needs and in 2012 they went all in on a pipeline that would help them become more self-sustaining and less reliant on Russia.
The United States and European Union were likely all to willing to help in order to cut into Russia’s economy and worldwide influence.
Turkey housed Syrian refugees and made political alignments with the EU and United States that likely alienated them from Russia. That was okay though because in exchange for housing Syrian refugees they expected to become a member of the EU.
“The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry”
Now it seems like the EU is reneging on their end of the deal, for one reason or another. Turkey is threatening to kick out the Syrian refugees and it seems like the Turks could find themselves without any allies, without a pipeline and with refugees that they likley cannot afford to support for much longer. Meanwhile their currency is experiencing hyperinflation and it appears that it will only get worse.
Now I have 15 minutes until pool league starts and hopefully that will leed to some lighter conversation!
Open Positions
Long: XBTM19
*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%
*1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven
Price: $3,727
Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven.
Leverage: 10X
Exposure: $3,541
Margin: 0.957 BTC
Unrealized PnL: +0.0369 BTC
Realised PnL: -0.001 BTC
Long: USDTRY
Price: $5.55804
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.131 BTC
Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge.
Long: USDZAR
*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8%
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%)
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position.
Price: $14.48
Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000)
Margin: 0.0157 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.057 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.0531 BTC
Notes: Flat L MA leaves some discretion. Could choose to scale out 75% (holding onto 25% due to golden cross) or I could choose to only scale out 50%. I chose the latter due to being at horizontal support. The very bullish 200 MA gives me confidence in this position. I have set a stop for the rest of the position at $13.49.
Long: USDHUF
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at $279.33 for remainder of position
*1/8/19 SCALE OUT: Have been waiting for price to move in my favor so that I can decrease exposure due to mistake I made when entering.
Price: $282.66
Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 | Max calculated risk = 0.1632 BTC
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.042 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.039 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.0866 BTC
Notes: Made mistake of entering 0.8 lots ($80,000) instead of 0.08 lots ($8,000) and have been waiting / hoping for price to move in my favor so that I could remedy that mistake. Go a bounce today that allowed me to re evaluate my risk. By scaling out of 75% of the position I have limited my risk to 7.5% of my bankroll for this challenge and that is much more acceptable.
Short: SPX500
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50%
Price: $2,472.62
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276)
Margin: 0.0586 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.2226 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC
Notes: Like seeing the L MA hold as resistance and the doji that is resulting. Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge.
Short: EURUSD
*1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at 1.1501 for remainder of position
Price: 1.13387
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4%
Leverage: 100:1
Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000)
Margin: 0.063 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.066 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC
Notes: Consensio is telling me to fully scale out. However we are currently at horizontal and trend resistance. Therefore I set a stop loss order slightly above resistance. That is only 0.3% away from my current price and the difference between exiting now and then would be nominal. However the difference of being able to hold onto my position and not capitalize on a big loss, in the event resistance holds, is very significant. Therefore I much prefer the risk:reward of a market stop loss at 1.1501 instead of exiting now at 1.1475.
Open Orders
Stop Market to long 0.82288 XBTH19 @ $4,037. Reason for entry is Consensio + that would be TL breakthrough. Also like how strong support is holding after the last pump.
Stop Market to long ETHUSD @ $160.20. Reason for entry is Consensio being fully bullish and $160 being boundary line for c&h + ascending triangle
Stop Market to short XAUUSD @ $1,274.89. Reason for entry is that would create a lower low and break down parabolic advance.
Watchtower
BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR.
ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r.
Currently have stop order set to long at $160.2.
*1/8/19: Price re entering cloud after kumo breakthrough + Kumo Twist. Watching for support at $125.
LTCUSD: Close > TL + boundary line of c&h / ascending triangle. Testing top of cloud + bullish kumo twist. I could enter a stop entry now, but I prefer to wait for a close above the daily cloud.
XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below.
XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weely chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross.
USDCAD: Really like seeing these hard / fast pullbacks when the enter a confluence of support. The Canadian Dollar is currently testing prior highs for horizontal support and the trendline waits right below. The L MA is very bullish and is also apart of this cluster of support. Being this far away from the S & M MA’s is a strong indication of short term oversold conditions. The only problem is that it could take a while before Consensio signals an entry.
EURUSD: Formed h&s and then whipsawed everyone who tried to trade it. Now it appears to be forming a bear flag below major resistance. It is also support above the 200 week MA and trying to reverse that 5 year bear trend.
Sources:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar–Turkey_pipeline
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
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