Crude oil going for 20

23 mai 2016

I'm still bearish when it comes to the bigger picture for crude oil, there are just too many guidelines invalidated to count the current bullish move as an impulse. I also see fundamental reasons why crude oil is only consolidating after a strong bearish move. The guideline of alternation between corrections within a structure is working out perfect.



To be clear nothing is certain when it comes to trading but my bias is bearish. If that changes I will adjust but to count the bullish move from 26 we need an acceleration. Until that moment it has to be corrective although the move is strong.

Once the market is convinced a certain instrument is going in one direction it becomes very interesting for me to start looking for opportunities. Often in the other direction.

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27 mai 2016

Note

The test of 50 and reversal was my sign to short, this was a relatively aggressive short. However if we see a first impulse lower (which we might have seen already on lower time frames), I will be looking to add short again.

updates will follow

31 mai 2016

Note

'jbourgault' commented about the possible AB=CD pattern for Oil and I think he has a fair point. That will mean that price might extend higher once again. This and '50' will provide a possible strong reversal once we see price failing to break higher. Structure is clear and overextended. My first trade got stopped out at break even and I will be looking for either a bearish break or a slightly higher high and THEN sell. However short term the reversal seems imminent.

6 juin 2016

Note

The short got stopped out at break even and price is extending once again as mentioned last time where I mentioned that price was not out of the danger zone yet. Let's see whether price will be able to take out 50 and in case it does 51 should hold for support for the ideal reversal.
Updates will follow.