US records, Trump irritates Sino & Johnson is ready to celebrate

29 nov. 2019

Most Americans, as well as financial markets, received the day off from work on Thursday, therefore, we can focus on other financial markets.

In today's review, we will focus on the oil market. Recall that next week the OPEC meeting should be held, which could potentially change the existing balance of forces in the oil market. But we will talk about this meeting later.

Now let's focus on the current state of affairs. Oil growth last week was highly dependent on optimistic news about the progress in negotiations between the US and China. Accordingly, traders worked out a possible increase in demand in the oil market.

But, as we already noted in the previous reviews, the markets are already tired of promises and waiting for results. Accordingly, oil growth stopped.

The participants in the oil market can be understood, especially considering that Trump has nevertheless signed a law to support protesters in Hong Kong. Potentially, this could cause a new round of escalation in relations between the USA and China and another breakdown of the negotiation process between the countries.

At the same time, statistics from the US come out bearish. First of all, it is about the USA reaching a new record in oil production: 12.9 million barrels per day. The result was an increase in US oil reserves, which in aggregate puts pressure on oil quotes and not only does not allow the asset to grow but also pulls it down.

Our position in oil is as follows: we look for points for selling the asset on the intraday basis and sell oil in the medium term (current prices are quite favourable for this).

But lets back to other news and markets. According to a YouGov poll, conservatives will win and get the vast majority in the December 12 elections in the UK. This means that Johnson will have every opportunity to ratify his Brexit deal. Thus, the probability of exit without a deal has become even more insignificant. For the pound, this is undoubtedly good news. Recall that its growth potential is far from exhausted. We are talking about 500-1000 points of the possible growth of GBPUSD. So we continue to recommend buying a pair.