Consolidation and criteria for a swing long
Daily:
- Bearish Ichimoku setup, but 47+ has been protected. So far it looks like a triple bottom. Price is also bit far below Kijun Sen.
- The continous protective buying at 47+ caused some positive divergence in haDelta+ and in haOscillator
- MACD flattened out, might cross up to signal consolidation or a pull back.
- Bullish trendline supp/res is around 46.
From this daily picture it's hard to decide wether it could break lower to 46 from here, or we'll see a reaction to 50+ first. Let's see the 4H.
4H:
- Ichimoku neutral, consolidation at the cloud.
- Swing bullish criteria No1: Price above Kijun + EWO green (not yet matched as EWO is still red)
Swing bullish criteria No2: Break above 100wma and Senkou B, which means a close above 48,50
- If next move is a dip on 4H, then watch if it makes a higher low, and if haOscillator stops dip at/above its center line and crosses up next. This could be another good early indication for increasing buying power and momentum pickup.
Strategy:
First of all, I do not believe in "triple bottoms", especially not at this close distance and not at major key supp/res level. I think this was invented by novice traders with short time frame focus, and it is not a real formation with any proven high probability. As far as I am concerned only "double bottom" (or double top) is reliable. So just because it looks like a strong resistance at 47+, you can't be sure it would hold on next attack.
When you look at a chart and you say "It looks like..." then it is different from "IT IS...". Until a picture just looks like a swing buy, it is just simply not that! It will be a swing buy when it meets the criterias as mentioned above. Even then you must know your risk, and size the trade according to the probability of winning, since the major timeframe is in fact bearish!
My point is, that I am also watching the possibility in Oil for a bounce and for a swing long trade, but I do not guess! I will buy it only, when I'm confident about the odds are more on my side.
This also means I have no FOMO (Fear Of Missing out), do you?
- Bearish Ichimoku setup, but 47+ has been protected. So far it looks like a triple bottom. Price is also bit far below Kijun Sen.
- The continous protective buying at 47+ caused some positive divergence in haDelta+ and in haOscillator
- MACD flattened out, might cross up to signal consolidation or a pull back.
- Bullish trendline supp/res is around 46.
From this daily picture it's hard to decide wether it could break lower to 46 from here, or we'll see a reaction to 50+ first. Let's see the 4H.
4H:
- Ichimoku neutral, consolidation at the cloud.
- Swing bullish criteria No1: Price above Kijun + EWO green (not yet matched as EWO is still red)
Swing bullish criteria No2: Break above 100wma and Senkou B, which means a close above 48,50
- If next move is a dip on 4H, then watch if it makes a higher low, and if haOscillator stops dip at/above its center line and crosses up next. This could be another good early indication for increasing buying power and momentum pickup.
Strategy:
First of all, I do not believe in "triple bottoms", especially not at this close distance and not at major key supp/res level. I think this was invented by novice traders with short time frame focus, and it is not a real formation with any proven high probability. As far as I am concerned only "double bottom" (or double top) is reliable. So just because it looks like a strong resistance at 47+, you can't be sure it would hold on next attack.
When you look at a chart and you say "It looks like..." then it is different from "IT IS...". Until a picture just looks like a swing buy, it is just simply not that! It will be a swing buy when it meets the criterias as mentioned above. Even then you must know your risk, and size the trade according to the probability of winning, since the major timeframe is in fact bearish!
My point is, that I am also watching the possibility in Oil for a bounce and for a swing long trade, but I do not guess! I will buy it only, when I'm confident about the odds are more on my side.
This also means I have no FOMO (Fear Of Missing out), do you?
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