Bull trap?

5 mai

This M formation appears on the 2 and 4 hour charts and is usually bearish. We see that price came down to $0.036, corresponding to the 0.618 Fib retracement, which adds to the likelihood that this is a bull trap. We see the same pattern printed in the RSI , which I find incredibly reliable. And We see bearish cross overs in several short term time frames up to 4 HTF.

VET has been bogged down by uncertainty in Bitcoin PA and has not been trading with convincing strength enough to break it's overall downward trend.

We can expect Vechain to finish the pattern and fall to around $0.035.

6 mai

Note

As we can see, bulls tried to invalidate the harmonic pattern but, as I said yesterday, they lacked conviction and strength enough to break the downward trend . This is a learning experience for newbies that just entered the market on the heels of news advertising hype over the halving event.

After the harmonic pattern comes to is conclusion there are two scenarios that could play out. 1. Bulls realize that the correction is not finished and withdraw, allowing PA to continue down to lower $0.034 area. Or 2. Bulls pull the price back to $0.036 area where PA will linger a short time while waiting for market participants to decide it's direction. Scenario 2 seems more plausible because of all the newbies feeling bullish..

Because my strategy this bull run is mostly a buy and HODL with a few sales at large dips, I mostly won't use stop losses. But do be careful to protect your assets with stop losses if you do not follow that particular strategy.

Let's go bears! Happy trading!

12 mai

Note

VET is quickly running out of space to move as it quickly approaches the bottom of a falling wedge. I have placed buy orders in the span between the bottom of the wedge and current price action, just in case we don't see it in this area again, highlighted in blue if I can manage to post an updated image.

When PA does break out of it's wedge, I have a contingency plan for either scenario. Although falling wedges are generally bullish, it is important to acknowledge that they can also break to the downside.

BEARISH SCENARIO: Zooming out we see that VET recently crossed the lower trend line of an ascending broadening wedge (megaphone), which are usually bearish and can produce a strong impulse. Perhaps it's just a matter of poorly drawn lines, we shall see.

Zooming out to the weekly chart we see printed in the RSI a double top crystal clear. I don't see anyone ever mention patterns printed on stochastic indicators ever, but I find these patterns to be far more reliable than when printed through PA. Also, the MACD has turned red.

On the daily chart, PA has nearly swallowed up all of the gains made by the flagpole of the pattern, a retracement encroaching on the .786 Fibonacci level. The bull flag may very well be considered invalidated by some market participants.

BULLISH SCENARIO: We can see in the daily RSI that more times than not, when the RSI hits 40 PA reacts strongly to the upside and currently the RSI is nearing that level.

The convergence of the falling wedge within the ascending wedge and the location of the slight breach of the ascending wedge could cause market participants to expect a continuation of the ascending wedge, thus deciding the direction of the breakout of the falling wedge seemingly before it occurs.

Whatever direction the breakout occurs, the measured move should be (at least, in the case of bullishness) 0.0246 higher or lower in the direction of the breakout from the level the breakout occurs.

I would remind the reader that I am applying a buy and hold technique. So, for me, I only feel pain if VET goes up while I'm in a sold (short) position. It can go down while I'm holding it, so long as I have the capital to increase the account back to it's original value. Don't trade like me unless you're in it for the long haul.

12 mai

Note

12 mai

Note