Volatility S&P 500 Index, Daily, The Upcoming Market Crash?

27 sept. 2022

I think that in mid-November we may be dealing with a stock market crash. Let's take a look at the volatility index of the S&P 500 stock index. The analogy of 2008 has been fulfilling almost perfectly so far. If it continues, the price should completely fill the gap and rebound from the green zone. If we break the red zone, I would expect a rebound from the newly created flip zone (gray box on the chart) and a dynamic increase in volatility. Volatility means big drops or big gains. In the current macroeconomic situation, it is difficult to think about dynamic increases, especially this winter. The potential trade on VIX to rebound from the green zone and break through the peaks from March 2020 has as much as a 20:1 risk-reward ratio (SL under the zone). I am sure there will be even more great opportunities for this scenario on shorting, i.e., SP500, Nasdaq 100 or DAX.

8 nov. 2022

Note

Time is short...

9 nov. 2022

Note

There was a trend change on the VVIX, so the gunshot on VIX probably may be from a higher level than I expected, right behind the corner.

23 nov. 2022

Note

The situation requires more time than I expected. The price dropped into the gap and toward the zone. The volatility shot should be coming soon. We can see that, for example, US30 is only 8% from the peak, while SPX is almost 20%, and NDX is slightly over 40%. This may suggest that the fat ones just want liquidity to dump. Some people point out that it is simply a capital shift. But in the current situation, in my opinion, looking at the macroeconomic data, e.g., the leading economic index (LEI), there must be a crash. We'll see if I'm right or wrong.

2 déc. 2022

Note

If there is no reaction to increases, the analogy will not be realized. If it's supposed to happen, it should occur within a week.