FOMC tool - 40% NO-CUT

17 sept. 2019

Using the FOMC tool, we see a:

• 25 basis points rate-cut --> 58.8%
  
• NO rate-cut --> 41.2%
  

To get these rates:
cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Tomorrow's volatility will surely grow, even if the FOMC cuts rates; with these percentages, we can expect J. Powell to suggest no more cuts in the future.
You can also expect Trump to fight this, hard.


**FOMC meeting to take place in 26 hours.

18 sept. 2019

Note

FOMC tool has the following probabilities 3 hours before the announcement:

29.6% --> No Cut
70.4% --> 25 basis points Cut