Crude oil retesting lower support

22 juil.

On Friday morning the oil price looked finely balanced. Front-month WTI had managed to hold support around $80. But it had failed to put sufficient clear water between this level and its first major upside target of $82 per barrel. That proved to be fatal for traders looking for an immediate resumption of the bull run from early June. Crude fell back sharply on Friday afternoon, breaking support cleanly. It is weaker again this morning. This is despite the unexpected rate cut from China, together with the country’s fresh plans for reviving its economy, formally announced over the weekend. The next significant support area stretches down to $77.70 or thereabouts. If this fails to hold then a retest of the June lows around $73 increases in likelihood. That’s good news for consumers of course, and, should it then consolidate down here for a month or so, would help put more downside pressure on headline inflation. But that’s getting carried away with an imaginary narrative. For now, the daily MACD suggests that there’s a touch more downside momentum, and a retest of an area of support which held in May and June is now in progress.