2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 31 (0.3718 BTC)

1 févr. 2019

Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

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Over the past week or two I have not seen any setups that interest me. I am wanting to get this challenge back on track and my hands were tied while there were not any desirable entries.

Doing this challenge publicly makes me feel anxious to get back into positions but I know that becoming impatient is the last thing I can afford to do right now. To ensure that is not happening I have been significantly decreasing exposure and trying my best to wait for the best possible setups.

Once I see a setup that I really like then I am waiting an extra day before entering and then I am preferring to use stop entries to make sure market is moving in my favor. Trading can be a fickle bitch and it is very much a game of: what have you done lately? It is one thing to not be results oriented while trading, but if taken too far that can clout judgement and cause delusional beliefs in one's ability.

I try my best to always remain objective and that requires constantly examining / learning from my mistakes. There were certainly some significant mistakes that were made over this past month that I am paying close attention to.

January Worst Dressed Trade

USDTRY

I got overconfident and overexposed myself before the trade moved in my favor. I love starting small to test the market and make sure that it is heading in my favor, then only adding once I have increased confidence in the trend. In this case I started with closer to 50% of my desired position size than 5%. On one hand I do not want to be results oriented, because this did have a very high probability of success and when trading hyperwaves buying a pullback to phase 3 is the best entry. 85% of hyperwaves in phase 3 go onto complete the cycle. On the other hand this one was a bit funky and I firmly believe it was a mistake to enter the position size that I did that early on in the game.

The large majority of my losses over the past month have come from being bullish the dollar and bearish the stock market. I am tentatively starting to turn bearish the USD and I am staying tf away from the stock market until I understand more what is going on there. Gold, Silver and Palladium are very, very interesting right now. I am expecting a 1 - 4 week pullback from here and will be hoping to find high probability long entries during that time.

Open Positions

Short XRPUSD
Exposure: 1,000 XRP / 0.081 BTC
Price: $0.30791
Stop: $0.27784
Risk: 9.76%

Short USDJPY
Exposure: 0.04 lots / 1.1782 BTC
Price: $108.79
Stop: $110.056
Risk: 1.06%


Pending Orders

(1)

LTCH19 stop buy entered on 1/30
Exposure: 27 LTC / 0.24867 BTC
Price: 0.00921
Stop: 0.00824
Risk: 10.53%

(2)

Stop order to long WTIUSD entered on 1/31
Exposure: 0.12 lots / 0.195 BTC
Price: $55.26
Stop: $51.39
Risk: 7%

Watchtower

XAU

Notes: Weekly green 9. Bear div in daily RSI, as well as ADX, while price tests major resistance. Massive resistance from $1,305 to $1,355. If breakthrough $1,355 then retesting ATH’s seems very likely. If not then this could pullback sharply to the $1,200 area. Pumping to $1,350 and then forming a c&h would be ideal.

Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form c&h. Weekly close > $1,355 is my signal to fully enter.

XAG

Alerts: Symmetrical Triangle

Notes: Testing cluster or resistance from horizontals & TL’s. On weekly green 9. Daily RSI bear div.

Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form Big W. Throwback to TL is another ideal entry.



ETHBTC

Patterns: Looks like 5 waves + ABC correction

Notes: Watching 3D Consensio + Stochastic. Love seeing spike and then retrace to bullish L MA. BTC market cap dominance at crucial area, could be forming descending triangle. Watching W S MA & bearish D L MA. Weekly golden cross at support.

Target: 0.065 if break triangle to upside

Gameplan: Watch D M MA + 2.5 week bear TL. Should be plenty of resistance from 0.032 - 0.034 to provide favorable entry.

2 févr. 2019

Note

Two positions were opened today and one stop order was added.

Long LTCH19
Exposure: 27 LTC / 0.24867 BTC
Price: 0.00922
Stop: 0.00824
Risk: 10.53%

Long WTIUSD
Exposure: 0.12 lots / 0.1966 BTC
Price: $55.30
Stop: $51.39
Risk: 7%


Pending Orders

(1)

Stop order entered on 2/1/19 to long XBTM19
Exposure: 0.3133 BTC
Price: $3,386
Stop Loss: $3,224
Risk: 4.78%

3 févr. 2019

Note

Stop Order triggered on XBTM19

Long XBTM19
Exposure: 0.311 BTC
Enter: $3,392
Stop: $3,224
Risk: 4.9%

4 févr. 2019

Note

Added to XRPUSD long
Exposure: 1,200 XRP / 0.104 BTC
Price: $0.2999
Stop: $0.27784
Risk: 7.07%


Order to add to LTCH19 long
Amount: 16 LTC / 0.15312 BTC
Price: 0.00957
Stop: 0.00888
Risk: 7.2%

5 févr. 2019

Note

Stopped out of USDJPY short | PnL: -0.0125 BTC | ROI: -1.27%


Day 35 and bankroll is at 0.31073

7 févr. 2019

Note

Still working hard to make this happen, but nothing has changed about my positions so there is not need for an update. Cheers!

8 févr. 2019

Note

Entered following orders:

1) Add to XRPUSD long at $0.32267 and moved stops to $0.284
2) Open BCHUSD long at $131.26 with stop loss at $112.95

Will plan on making new update post soon!