GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 30 - Oct 04]

30 sept.

Last week, XAUUSD continued to rise to a new peak at 2,685 USD/oz. However, after that, profit-taking pressure caused the international gold price to drop to 2,643 USD/oz and close the week at 2,658 USD/oz.

Gold prices continued to increase strongly this week mainly due to the FED cutting interest rates by 50 percentage points in last week's meeting. Notably, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index for August announced this week only increased by 2.2% over the same period last year, down from 2.5% in July. and is the lowest level since February 2021. PCE in August was close to the FED's target of 2%. This further strengthens expectations that the FED will continue to sharply cut interest rates in the near future.

In the current context, the FED's biggest concern is to revive the labor market, which has been stagnant in recent times. Next week, the US will announce non-agricultural employment (NFP) data and the unemployment rate for August. According to forecasts, NFP in August will only reach about 144,000 jobs and the unemployment rate may remain at low levels. 4.2%. If these data are as predicted, it will also increase expectations that the FED will continue to cut interest rates in the coming period, thereby positively affecting gold prices next week.

📌However, the problem that many investors and experts are concerned about right now is that the gold price is deep in the overbought zone, clearly shown through the MACD, RSI... Therefore, the possibility of pressure cannot be ruled out. Profit taking will increase again, causing gold prices to suffer another correction next week at the current high price range.

Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.645 – 2.624USD
Resistance: 2.685 – 2.672USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595

30 sept.

Note

30 sept.

Note

During the US session, Fed Chairman Powell is expected to give a speech on the economic outlook at the 66th annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics. Most likely, he will not give any new information compared to the previous press conference because he has not yet announced a new CPI or NFP report. So this speech may be notable but probably won't make a big impact.

30 sept.

Note

Gold continued to adjust sharply downward at the beginning of the week and bottomed at 2,630 USD/oz during the session. Profit-taking ahead of China's long holiday and cautious market sentiment appear to be putting pressure on XAU/USD as the market awaits Fed Chairman Powell's speech.

1 oct.

Note

The stimulus package announced by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continues to have positive effects. The rise of the Chinese stock market may also affect gold prices due to more attractive yields. Gold is still in extreme overbought territory, so further upside may be hampered.

1 oct.

Note

World gold price recorded a slight increase of 2,636 USD/ounce, showing a recovery compared to the previous session. In the previous trading session, the price dropped to 2,629.5 USD/ounce due to pressure from signals of a moderate pace in the Fed's next interest rate easing cycle.

2 oct.

Note

- DXY broke out of the Wedge pattern and closed above EMA21, showing a possible recovery from the previous downtrend.
- DXY could continue its upward momentum to retest 102.56 if the index breaks above 101.77 coinciding with the downtrend line.

2 oct.

Note

ADP Employment change data are typically released two days before the official NFP report, which is also considered a preliminary indicator of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report. Job market data has become the focus of attention recently due to its growing impact on the Fed's latest monetary policy decisions.

2 oct.

Note

Gold adjusted to fall deeply below 2,650 USD/oz

After soaring above 2,660 USD/oz due to Israel's threat of "retaliation" against Iran, gold prices have now dropped more than 150 pips to 2,648 USD/oz.

3 oct.

Note

At the end of the trading session on October 2, the spot gold contract dropped 0.5% to 2,649.41 USD/oz. Gold prices rose more than 1% on October 1 after Iran launched missiles to attack Israel.