XAUUSD H8 Idea
Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady in 2025—Impact on Stocks, Bonds, and the Dollar
- The Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates unchanged in 2025, with markets pricing in at most one cut by late in the year. Inflation remains stubborn, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signalled patience, dampening hopes for aggressive easing.
- Equities face mixed impacts. Growth stocks, especially in tech, may struggle under high borrowing costs, while financial stocks could benefit from stable net interest margins. Bond yields remain elevated, with the 10-year Treasury surpassing 4.6%, reflecting skepticism about Fed easing. Corporate debt, especially lower-rated bonds, faces pressure from high refinancing costs, though investment-grade bonds may attract demand.
- The U.S. dollar is expected to stay strong as other central banks consider rate cuts, which could weigh on multinational earnings but help control inflation.
Gold View
- Gold found support at $2,864 before rebounding, signaling strength toward resistance at $2,909 and $2,943. If it closes in the top third of the daily range, a bullish hammer pattern could confirm upward momentum.
- Despite briefly breaking below Tuesday’s bearish signal, today’s rally suggests buyers remain in control. Short-term support remains at $2,864, with a break lower targeting $2,853. On the upside, clearing $2,909 and Monday’s high of $2,912 would reinforce bullish sentiment, with further targets at $2,961 and $2,982 if $2,943 is surpassed.
- With inflation still above target, the Fed has little urgency to cut rates, keeping the dollar firm, bond yields elevated, and market conditions mixed. Investors should watch inflation data closely for signs of a potential shift in policy.
- The Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates unchanged in 2025, with markets pricing in at most one cut by late in the year. Inflation remains stubborn, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signalled patience, dampening hopes for aggressive easing.
- Equities face mixed impacts. Growth stocks, especially in tech, may struggle under high borrowing costs, while financial stocks could benefit from stable net interest margins. Bond yields remain elevated, with the 10-year Treasury surpassing 4.6%, reflecting skepticism about Fed easing. Corporate debt, especially lower-rated bonds, faces pressure from high refinancing costs, though investment-grade bonds may attract demand.
- The U.S. dollar is expected to stay strong as other central banks consider rate cuts, which could weigh on multinational earnings but help control inflation.
Gold View
- Gold found support at $2,864 before rebounding, signaling strength toward resistance at $2,909 and $2,943. If it closes in the top third of the daily range, a bullish hammer pattern could confirm upward momentum.
- Despite briefly breaking below Tuesday’s bearish signal, today’s rally suggests buyers remain in control. Short-term support remains at $2,864, with a break lower targeting $2,853. On the upside, clearing $2,909 and Monday’s high of $2,912 would reinforce bullish sentiment, with further targets at $2,961 and $2,982 if $2,943 is surpassed.
- With inflation still above target, the Fed has little urgency to cut rates, keeping the dollar firm, bond yields elevated, and market conditions mixed. Investors should watch inflation data closely for signs of a potential shift in policy.
Transaction en cours
XAUUSD Moving well +140pips
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Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.