GOLD down 0.17%, focus on GDP and Williams' speech

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased more than 1% yesterday and is currently in the Asian trading session today May 30, also increasing 0.09% and surpassing 4.6%. , causing gold prices to lose support and continue to decline. Gold spot price XAUUSD currently reported at around 2,334USD/oz, a decrease equivalent to 0.17% on the day.

After the price of XAUUSD reaching a new all-time high, it encountered a sell-off and fell back to more than 120 US Dollars an ounce from a high of 2,450 USD/ounce.
The recent trend of the United States maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time will support the US Dollar and high US bond yields, putting some pressure on the precious metals market.

However, from a more general perspective if the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in the future, it will significantly support gold prices. In addition, with the support of factors such as central banks continuously increasing gold purchases and the increasing instability of the global geopolitical situation, the potential for gold prices to increase in the near future still remains.

Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have made hawkish comments, stimulating demand for the dollar recently. As a result, market sentiment worsened and the US Dollar increased in value.
Traders were still absorbing hawkish comments from Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari on Tuesday. He said Fed officials are not ignoring interest rate hikes, adding that they could cut rates up to twice by the end of 2024 in case they do.

This week, traders are preparing to release April's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Core PCE is expected to increase 2.8% year-over-year, while overall PCE is expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month. If data shows a rise in inflation this will boost sentiment to keep interest rates high for longer. This situation is negative for gold prices because the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets such as gold is increasing. This scenario will be beneficial for interest-earning assets and US Dollar yields.

During this trading day, traders should also pay attention to the US GDP Index data, Initial Jobless Claims and Speech by FOMC member Williams.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
After the gold price failed to break above the trend (a) note to readers in previous issues it came under pressure and fell back to test the initial notable support level at 2,324 USD.
It is worth mentioning that the gold price has fallen below the EMA21 level, providing favorable conditions for a bearish outlook in the near future.
If gold falls below the initial support at $2,324 it could continue to decline towards $2,305 – $2,300 in the short term.
The relative strength index (RSI) is still pointing down without reaching the oversold level, which shows that there is still technical room for downside.

Only when gold moves above the trend will it have enough conditions to continue to recover and increase in price. For the rest of the day, the technical outlook for gold prices leans towards the possibility of a decrease in price with notable positions being identified. listed as follows.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345 – 2,353USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2379 - 2377

⚰️SL: 2383

⬆️TP1: 2372
⬆️TP2: 2367

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2306 - 2308

⚰️SL: 2301

⬆️TP1: 2313
⬆️TP2: 2318

Commentaire:

🔽The dollar suffers its biggest losses in two weeks after a strong blow from US data

The US dollar witnessed a significant decline during trading on Thursday, as the green currency erased almost all of its gains from the previous session and recorded its largest daily losses in two weeks despite the preliminary revised higher-than-expected reading of growth data in the United States, as the dollar suffered from the impact of another set of data. Negativity.

Commentaire:

🟡GOLD STABILIZES TODAY AND IS HEADING TO END THE MAY SESSIONS AT A HISTORIC LEVEL

Gold prices moved in a narrow range during trading on Friday, as the precious metal witnessed many factors that enhanced its stability in trading. However, gold is heading to achieve weekly and monthly profits for the fourth month in a row.

Commentaire:

Gold prices decreased slightly by 0.25% in the week from May 27 to 31 and extended the decline for the second consecutive week, in line with other commodities as the market became less optimistic about the possibility of the US cutting interest rates. interest rate multiple times this year due to persistently high inflation.

Commentaire:

ISM data have not been able to breathe new life into a series of poor data in the US that put pressure on the USD, and the greenback continues to weaken on a large scale due to falling yields. While orders/inventories continue to weaken, it can also be said that detailed data are not as tight as the "stagflation" speculations after a series of reports over the past few months.

Commentaire:

On the daily chart time frame, gold (XAUUSD) is approaching the $2,300 support zone and forming a potential ascending price channel. The $2,300 support zone coincides with the lower boundary of the price channel and the 78.6% Fibonacci extension. If gold bounces above the $2,300 support zone, the price could rally towards the $2,400 resistance, coinciding with the recent swing top.

Commentaire:

- DXY retested the 105.00 resistance level and could not sustain above this level. The index fell to 104.00.
- If DXY closes below the 104.00 support, the index could return to around 103.00.
- Conversely, DXY could stay in the 104.00-105.00 zone if the index remains above the 104.00 support level.