Long

3000 BY HALLOWEEN, 7E, NEW ATH, 2410 VS 2390 RUG PULL

Mis à jour

This draft continues directly from DRAFT 7D notes, wrapped up before Sunday open.
1) bitcoin's response is enough for ORANGE MAN's route to be the favorite
2) but without knowing what happens in first 90-180 minutes after open
3) I can't say that orange is a heavy favorite over yellow
4) especially when yellow was 75% vs. field before Trump assassination attempt
5) in ANY CASE, this is enough data for me to publish last post
6) for price action from here to 12:00 PM, or noon ET, WED 7/17
7) will add notes soon after Sunday open in 69 minutes

Note

4:55 PM ET, CONTINUING WITH NOTES FOR LATE MODEL:
8) KEEP IN MIND that late model as 2450-2460 hitting TUESDAY 7/16
9) 2460+ NEXT SUNDAY
10) and 2520 7/24
11) or basically what would happen IF BLUE ROUTE WINS
12) in that case, whatever open drop is IF THERE IS ONE
13) you leverage up within 3-4 hours
14) and wait for new all time high on Tuesday instead
15) that is worst case scenario before market open

Note

Note

6:02, PM 2413.XX, key levels are 2417, 2424
1) we really want to see 2426 early
2) the earlier the better
3) best w/in 60-90 min of open

Note

6:11 PM, $6 drop to 2409 now has yellow route in the lead
1) remember that in first 90 min and over 2407, yellow route still leads blue route
2) so right now, at 6:12 and 2410.77 yellow route back to heavy favorite

Note

5:39 PM ET 2407.91, if bid/ask moves under 2407 again, start hedging
1) for a blue out come
2) which is a move as deep as 2397 before reversing
3) this posts 2450 and new all time high on Tuesday

Note

a) why is blue not favorite until under 2407 or past 7:30 PM
b) because the confluence of trends at 2407 means
c) bears must break 2407 for blue to be favorite
d) AND KEEP IT UNDER 2407 FOR NEXT 8 HOURS
e) this is a big ask for current trend maps
f) once the machines realize 2407 doesn't break
g) then comes the bounce
h) HOW STRONG THE BOUNCE IS determines the rest of the way
i) in last post I said that if 2405 held and bounce you would get something between yellow and blue
j) WHILE IT'S TRUE ANY ROUTE CAN HAPPEN, the odds don't work that way
k) bc specific price levels have stronger influence on demand/supply
l) this is why even now (at 7:08 PM AND 2407.42) yellow route is still favored over
blue route
m) AND also any route between yellow and blue

Note

7:17 PM ET, so why HEDGE AT 2407?
n) bc you cannot explain everything
o) a trend is a trend
p) until it stops it's still a trend
q) once it picks up steams, it gets stronger
r) so until the trend turns, we hedge to protect what we have gained
s) and wait for right moment to drop hedges
t) and hammer the leverage

Note

u) why not hedge earlier?
v) depends on context
w) I write in context of a long from 2293 to 2450/2520

Note

7:26 PM, 2406.XX, what now?
1) I think everyone's waiting for the current short from 2418 to end
2) its gonna end tonight
3) once it ends
4) the turn up will be sharp and catch up to yellow route
5) but since the shape for the turn is different
6) the shape of yellow route will also be somewhat different
7) one thing remains the same
8) current expectations to match and exceed current all time high at 2449
9) BEFORE NY CLOSE TOMORROW

Note

10) a buddy of mind gave me some food for thought
11) he said if Trump wins, wouldn't Bitcoin be favored over gold?
12) I agree with this
13) how so?
14) well since March highs for both, gold has outperformed bitcoin
15) when the last time you saw that meaningfully?
16) JUST ABOUT NEVER
17) but I think it's true, bc Donald Trump's background is in real estate
18) and real estate people LOVE DEBT more than life itself
19) it's pretty much life to them
20) in that sense front loading inflation expectations would imply Bitcoin outperforming gold
21) which is not hard to see considering that's been pretty much ITS ENTIRE HISTORY

Note

7:49 PM ET 2407.xx I just figured something out...
a) ok so we are going up
b) matching current all time high
c) and NEW ALL TIME HIGHS TO MORROW
d) this SOUNDS JUST LIKE YELLOW ROUTE
e) bc insofar, it's NOT ORANGE ROUTE
f) the difference is this, WHAT IS THE RUG PULL AFTER NEW ALL TIME HIGHS
g) the implied price action says 2390
h) but I DON'T THINK THAT'S TRUE EVEN IF THIS LOOKS JUST LIKE YELLOW ROUTE
i) at noon tomorrow, which is time of POWELL'S SPEECH
j) I HAVE EVIDENCE RIGHT NOW THAT SAYS 2410 HOLDS THE RUG PULL

Note

k) so what I am saying?
l) what I saying is, IN A FEW HOURS
m) price will begin to LOOK JUST LIKE YELLOW ROUTE
n) but EVENTUALLY FINISH LIKE ORANGE ROUTE, for ex:

Note

o) in chart above this means that 2450 comes right NY OPEN
p) but NEW ALL TIME HIGHS comes AFTER POWELL SPEECH

Note

8:14, NO, IF IT'S YELLOW ROUTE, IT HAS TO BE 2390 RUG PULL
1) there is something I can't figure out
2) is it 2410 or 2390 ?
3) this affects when 2520 comes
4) this Wed 7/17 or the following Wed 7/24
5) but if it's YELLOW ROUTE math says no doubt is 2390
6) so that we know
7) what we don't know is... IS THERE ANOTHER ROUTE CLOSER TO ORANGE
8) cannot say that there is right now
9) not impossible, I just can't see it
10) so until I see something
11) BASE CASE IS CATCHING UP AND PLAYING OUT LIKE YELLOW ROUTE

Note

8:56 PM, 2408.XX, nothing has changed
12) just slow AF to turn
13) it's not like CPI/PPI/FOMC/NFP
14) where SOMETHING HAS TO HAPPEN
15) and almost always do within 45 min
16)it's been 3 hours and it's 2408.84
17) so price has moved $1.50 off Friday aftermarket close

Note

18) already dropped hedges
19) just picking the right time to hammer the leverage

Note

20) 9:20 PM ET, 2406.87, play chart at top, we are right between orange and blue
21) this is BEFORE THE TURN...
22) so?
23) in theory, AFTER THE TURN WILL NOT BE IN BETWEEN

Note

9:28 PM ET, 2407.xx OMG, I GET IT
1) here's what's in my mind
2) I see 2450, I see new all time highs
3) how do we move to new all time highs
4) AND AVOID 2390?
5) MEANING 2410 HAS TO HOLD
6) HOW DO WE DO THAT?
7) because orange route is eliminated
8) and blue route is eliminated
9) that leaves only yellow route, right?
10) no, it doesn't have to play out this way

Note

11) by the way, I am not saying THAT IT IS NOT YELLOW ROUTE
12) but so far, IT IS NOT!
13) it can still do do 2450+new all time highs
14) AND STILL AVOID THE YELLOW ROUTE TRAP
15) it just has to look different up there
16) BUT IF IT LOOKS THE SAME, it's 2390 rug pull
17) so be aware

Note

9:53, 2409.XX LEVERAGE UP

Note

10:31, I understand what has to happen now.
a) as in the difference between 2410 vs 2390
b) it's in the air until UNTIL TOKYO TOMORROW
c) besides this, it should look CLOSEST TO YELLOW ROUTE
d) from here to second top
e) and we will go on from there

Note

10:52 PM, 2408.91 and this is not going to get interesting until 5 AM
a) interesting defined as above 2424
b) why?
c) BECAUSE TREND LINES
d) I just mathematically proved trend lines matter EVEN MORE...
e) than I previously thought
f) essentially more than trend waves
g) how so?
h) bc trend waves called would never say it's that late
i) but watch, it's going to be after 5 AM ET, which is 6+ hours from now

Note

5) continuing in chart above
6) honestly, since it's' between yellow and blue..
7) it's not like IT'S SO WRONG OR SOMETHING
8) but you have to see how REGRESSION WAVES ACT AT TREND LINES
9) it's like "they are scared" WHEN THERE'S NO REASON TO BE
10) so whatever, I'm taking 3 hour break
11) since I am not in front of a screen HARD STOP 2407 for this setup
12) and GET BACK IN IF IT BOUNCES

Note

12:11 AM, 7/15, 2412.36, NO CHANGE SINCE CHART ABOVE

Note

12:14 but you look at that chart...
a) does seem like anybody cared about Trump's assassination attempt?
b) doesn't look like it to me

Note

12:27 for the record, I wasn't paying attention
c) but Bitcoin is up another 2500 to 62700 since Saturday high of 60300
d) guess that guy knew what he was talking about

Note

e) so since Trump's assassination attempt
f) gold up $1.50 to 2411.975
g) bitcoin up $4300...
h) it's gonna be like that again

Note

2:00, 2408.xx don't worry about a drop...
i) but it's not going anywhere quickly
j) so since Trump news
k) Bitcoin up $4600
l) gold now down $3

Note

m) we didn't even hit the previous trend line from 2418
n) so all we have is blue route
o) which now looks like this:

Note

p) 2:18 AM 2405.XX
q) just like it did before
r) this has feel of a "sector shift of the SP500"
s) the analogy is that gold a sector and bitcoin a sector
t) the odds of this setup going flat at the top this long....
u) that's exactly what it feels like

Note

2:34 AM 2404.44, here's "FAIR VALUE of overall trend" in black vs blue route

Note

1) fair value of overall trend is what happens when a bullish move...
2) is super compressed for no apparent reason
3) leading to compression release at specific market open
4) in this case right before NY OPEN
5) if I observe gold by itself, without knowing what I know about Trump news
6) and Bitcoin up soooo much
7) that would be my call
8) but with gold now down $7 vs bitcoin up ...

Note

9) over $4600+
10) it's REALLY HARD to make take "fair value" seriously
11) when the rest of the world seems to be "on something else now"

Note

12) I've deleveraged at 2407, but I have start thinking about hedges here
13) let me see

Note

14) 2:59, I am not fond of 3 AM ET gold price action
15) so I've hedged if only for that reason

Note

17) we are at strong support right now and should turn up hard
18) but London at this hour has a history of breaking many bullish setups
19) wait for the bounce first

Note

3:24 AM, 2402.55, trend maps having being showing a strong bounce for 60 minutes
20) and STILL no bounce
21) have to wait

Note

3:29, 2404, drop hedges, but a bit worried

Note

22) none of my trend maps showed a lower low vs hours ago
23) and showed strong spike at 2405/06
24) and still showing that
25) I'm looking at the time limit for the strong move up
26) bc if it doesn't move up strong here
27) I have to sit out and come up with answers why

Note

28) 3:48 AM, 2406.47 HERE'S MY POSITION ON THIS ENTIRE SITUATION
29) all my extrapolations showed NEW ALL TIME HIGH BY 8 PM ET TUESDAY
30) if this doesn't hit, this is not a small problem
31) if you don't break 2450 soon after hitting 2450
32) there's going to be a bigger drop after 2450
33) that really messes with the entire picture to 2520
34) because we get back to the same question
35) DO WE HAVE CHANNEL FOR THIS RALLY OR NOT?
36) it's really, really late to be asking this question

Note

4:05 AM, so here is what needs to happen to wipe out short term technical damage
1) the sideways move since 2424 after Thurs CPI is basically a a triangle
2) BUT AT A REALLY BAD TIME
3) so to wipe out this twisting at the top
4) WE REALLY NEED 2450 BEFORE POWELL'S SPEECH AT NOON
5) it's 4:07 now, so we need to move up 42-43 pts in less than 8 hours
6) to fix this mess

Note

7) part of me is like, what else should happen here?
8) the other part is like, are we about to have a double top at 2450?, uh oh...

Note

9) score since Trump news: gold -$1, bitcoin +$4800

Note

10) correction, -$1: +$4720

Note

5:01 AM, all we have to do to fix this problem is GO STRAIGHT UP
a) 4-5 hours
b) 2447-2452
c) that will fix everything

Note

d) scroll up to first chart above
e) "fair value" black route

Note

5:33 AM, 2408.45, MAX LEVERAGE 1 OF 3

Note

1) by the way, we are moving for 2450
2) I just can not tell how fast
3) I think it's before POWELL

Note

5:53 AM, 2409.65, MAX LEVERAGE 2 OF 3

Note

4) as a reminder, I treat maximum leverage as normal do a day-trade
5) WITH 2 EXCEPTIONS
6) first is I HAVE TO BE SURE
7) second is that I EXIT EARLY OR TAKE WHAT I CAN GET (not what I want)

Note

6:01, 2411.55, MAX LEVERAGE 3 OF 3

Note

6:22 AM 2413.71
1) am watching 14.5, 16.5, and 23.5
2) why?
3) because TREND LINES

Note

4) changes, it should be 14.5, 17.5, 24

Note

6:56, 2414.xx
1) so next is 17, then 24, then 30
2) maybe 6 point drop at 30 TO 24
3) IF NOT, its straight to 40-ISH GIVE OR TAKE
4) THERE SHOULD BE A BIG DROP HERE BEFORE 47-53
5) but that's just pattern recognition saying that
6) I don't know for sure

Note

7) at 7:04 and 15.65, I expect this move to get to 47-53
8) AT OR BEFORE 9:30 or int the next 150 min

Note

9) Powell is at noon, WAY OUT, so that's probably HARD RETRACE MARKER
10) THE ONLY THING left is empire state manufacturing
11) not a big deal, but that's 8:30
12) so less than 90 minutes out
13) so at 8:25, watch where you are
14) if at 35-40, guard for 10-15 point retrace
15) especially if you took my directions for MAX LEVERAGE
16) remember when max leveraging
17) you DO NOT HAVE THE OPTION TO BE WRONG
18) so it's ok to sell early if it means protecting that batting average

Note

19) by the way, leverage up is just adding more to the same position
20) MAX LEVERAGE IS NOT THE SAME THING
21) remember this, bc I lever/leverage up often
22) MAX LEVERAGE IS ALWAYS closed/exit/cover usually 4 hours

Note

7:26 AM, 2419.XX, PLAY CHART AT TOP
1) sure as hell looks like blue
2) so be careful at 2424
3) bc if it gets rejected again at 2424
4) then it's OBVIOUSLY BLUE

Note

5) I don't think so
6) I think it stalls a bit THEN MOVES FOR 37-40
7) if this hits before 8:30, which is about an hour out
8) I can see a 15 point drop
9) THIS WOULD PUSH 49-55 TO 10:30-11:30

Note

7:56, too tight to see 38 by 8:30 ... be careful
10) if you have leverage on
11) don't wait til I give a signal for cut off
12) because I usually do not when I am busy

Note

8:15 2418.xx, so 1 of 2 things happens at 8:30
1) either the break of 2424
2) or the rejection at 2424
3) ultimately not knowable
4) but trend does favor move up
5) but that does not help much when you are minutes from event time
6) due to event time (8:30) reversal
7) which is a pretty regular thing
8) needs no reason to happen so be aware

Note

8:31, reaction seems negative at first..
9) but still early
10 may very well turn up here and move all the way up

Note

11) 8:37, 14.xx not yet,
12) this is going to take some time

Note

13) I know it looks just like blue route
14) but I have reasons to think it should move up before powell

Note

9:11 AM, I saw it hit 2410-2411, it's 2412.59 as I type
15) I am still waiting for a turn before POWELL
16) if I see it I'll say something
17) in the mean time, you should've dropped leverage before 8:30
18) if you want to, sit out, wait a little bit for a bounce
19) unless you are talking about main long position, then do nothing

Note

20) 9:31, NY regular open 1 minute ago
21) here's last chance to run for 2450 before Powell
22) probably stall once it hits 2424
23) then one more sideways move before finally moving above 2424
25) after that it's 25 points to 2450
26) we been here since Thursday morning, it's due
27) if I don't think it can make it, I'll say something

Note

9:55, 2415.xx THIS IS PRETTY MUCH DEAD LINE
28) too much stalling
29) needs to be above 2424 in 20-30 minutes o
30) if not, it's going to just stall right here until Powell
31) so if price doesn't start moving up NOW, it's not going to move

Note

32) 10:03 AM, 2419, 2 HOURS TO JUMP 30+ PTS
1) and use Powell as an excuse to drop 25+
2) in which case the drop to 2420s would be a buy for 2470s

Note

3) obviously if drops to 2412 again, then clock runs out, wait for powell

Note

10:58, 62 MINUTES TO POWELL...
a) so I don't care if it moves past 2449
b) I am done 47+
c) unless it's on a sharp line I can manage
d) bc I trade 2 accts and have to help people manage too
e) but if it jumps past 49 hard, and you can manage well
f) by all means take the money
g) but be aware that 2449 is all time high
h) I woudldn't be surpised if it dropped 15 in 30 seconds FOR NO REASON AT ALL
i) so work hard but work smart too or you'll waste the whole time

Note

11:24 AM, 34.75, NEED 15 MORE BUT ONLY HAVE 36 MIN
1) be careful
2) it's very close to powell
3) it's not obvious price is going to get there in time
4) so be careful

Note

11:54, AM, if you want to dance with Powell ...
1) you are something
2) I've sold bc I'm scared of powell
3) DESPITE NOT HAVING A TECHNICAL REASON TO SELL
4) this is A FUNDAMENTAL REASON TO SELL
5) just don't him to say something and lose all my money

Note

1:24, I'm drafting now for next 48 hours
1) Powell speech threw a wrench in this whole thing
2) so what now?
3) rally not done
4) we need 2 more highs
5) the 2450 high and the new all time high
6) until we have it, we are not going anywhere
7) will post next one soon

Note

1:47 PM ET SO:

1) there's a limit to updates I can do for general audience (set buy Tradingview)
2) I don't want to get banned again breaking their rules
3) this is also too tedious make them happy
4) so I am going to wrap up public posts today
5) if you u want to find me, it's the link right below here
6) it's still free until Thursday
7) goodbye

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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