GOLD → Consolidation ahead of #NFP. What to expect?

6 oct. 2023

XAUUSD has been consolidating for 4 days. The formation is directed to realization at the moment of #NFP publication. The market was in a downtrend for a long time, after which it went into a narrow consolidation, there were no pullbacks at all in the last two weeks



Today, at 12:30 GMT NonFarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (Sep.) will be published. This is quite important news for short-term forex market pricing. The impact is on the dollar, and from it already on gold. On the chart we see the formation of a long 4-day consolidation in the range of 1828 - 1815. On the daily chart, the maximum decrease in volatility over the last 2 weeks is forming. The consolidation is starting to form a pre-breakout character as this range is forming near trend support and near the key level of 1809-1807. Hence, based on the negative fundamental background and the formation of a pre-breakout consolidation, there is every chance of a support breakout and further decline towards both 1800 and 1775. But there is always a BUT. News is an unpredictable nuance. Negative news for DXY can give a bullish surge for gold and vice versa. The nuances are shown on the d1 chart. On D1 SMAs are in the phase of signal realization

Support levels: 1815.3, 1812, 1807
Resistance levels: 1828, channel border

It is difficult to expect something concrete from the news. In the short term there may be a retest of these resistance areas, but in the medium term I continue to wait for the fall

XAUUSD GC1! MGC1! XAGUSD SI1! DXY

Regards R. Linda!

6 oct. 2023

Note

It turned out to be much simpler than that. Even on weak news for the dollar, gold is falling precipitously.
But now it looks like a trap - long-squeeze

6 oct. 2023

Note

A rebound from support, local growth and subsequent medium-term decline may follow

7 oct. 2023

Note

What happened to gold:
The market sentiment of the crowd is of interest only to the market maker. He will not follow them but plays the opposite game. Initially, there was an imbalance towards the buyers, whose stop orders were below the 1815 area. As you saw, on positive news for gold, the price went down - kind of illogical. After a long squeeze and a shakeout at the bottom, the market freed itself from the unnecessary volume of orders and then, under the pressure of the positive news leverage, headed upwards, where at that moment the sellers' imbalance was already reigning. At the moment we are interested in the 1829-1930 level, but that is another story.