3000 BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 10-1: LEGENDS NEVER DIE
In June while we were still under 2300, I was forecasting a series called "3000 BY HALLOWEEN". I have gave up on it several times because I didn't trust my work enough, simply bc my short-medium engine never agreed with my medium long engine.
I realize now the error in that logic. The short-medium engine can only agree with medium long engine when they are forecasting the same window, as in the next 35 days. So this is the "raw base case". I expect the 2593-2600 correction after NFP. This move accomplishes the rejection at the channel and the 2593-2600 retrace at the same time. This leaves only one realistic curve to 3000 and blue route in chart above is that "generic route".
I will post DRAFT 10-2 when I have it.
I realize now the error in that logic. The short-medium engine can only agree with medium long engine when they are forecasting the same window, as in the next 35 days. So this is the "raw base case". I expect the 2593-2600 correction after NFP. This move accomplishes the rejection at the channel and the 2593-2600 retrace at the same time. This leaves only one realistic curve to 3000 and blue route in chart above is that "generic route".
I will post DRAFT 10-2 when I have it.
Note
3:42 PM ET, so my notes for the rollover to 2600 is the same as previously stated'
1) Monday we retest the high and fail
2) Tuesday we drop, but not anywhere near as hard as originally though
3) this process continues the roller to through NFP on Friday 10/04
4) we will test 2593-2600 here
5) and then in 4 weeks we move up 400 points
Note
Note
4) it's just classic abc correction
5) I'll be back at 2600
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Note
9/28, 2:33 PM ET, I can prove a 2900+ high
a) I can't prove a 3K high
b) but that does not mean it can't hit
c) so from here, we move to new all time high 2710-ish
d) then drop to 2593-2600
e) then move to 2800+ at 10/14-10/15
f) whether or not we hit 3000 in October depends on what this 2800+ is
h) this is the last factor that can change the high in October
i) only bc of time constriction
j) I am comfortable with a 3000 in Nov and 3100 in December
k) so that's where I stand on that
Note
l) 7:05 PM ET, 2920 is the target for October with 3000 possible
m) so I see 3600 in May
n) I also think that silver may top in May
Note
o) but I see gold 4200 or higher 4 months later
p) while its not obvious silver can break $90 high set in May or late June
Note
THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS 10-2:
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