GOLD → Beginning of correction, possible test of support

22 nov. 2023

XAUUSD forms another micro rally on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the price tries to test the high but fails to reach the area amid a strengthening DXY ahead of the news.



Several important news are published today, I am interested in Initial Jobless Claims - as one of the inflation indicators. Analysts expect a slight improvement in this indicator, which may strengthen the dollar in the short term. But as we remember, the last 3 times the data was worse than the previous one. If they are better than expected, gold will show a slight correction and vice versa.
From the last FOMC meeting: Fed members are not ready to cut the rate yet, but there is a high probability that they will not raise it again.

From a technical analysis point of view: Gold looks quite strong despite the indicators data, we are judging on a fundamental basis. High interest, weakening dollar and geopolitical basis suggest further price growth.

The 1984 level still plays an important role for the market. At the moment the price is in the range of 2004-1993-1984. Since today's retest failed to update the high, the price is forming a correction. The market is aiming to test the nearest support. We highlight several most important scenarios regarding the overall situation:



The main sense of which is either consolidation or retest of resistance after a small correction. But in the long term, I expect a breakout of the local resistance and the direction of further growth towards the global targets.

Support levels: 0.236 fibo, 1993, 0.382 fibo, 1984
Resistance levels: 2000-2004

I am expecting a correction and news data that may determine the short to medium term outlook. I still see gold as an asset that can strengthen its price in the near term.

Regards R. Linda!

22 nov. 2023

Note

As I said - gold will go into consolidation before the news.
On the chart, before the news, a symmetrical triangle was forming.
After the actual data, the price breaks support as the news is bearish for gold.
The market defines a short-term-swing scenario.
Price is heading towards support.

We are still watching the 1984 level as it is an important level at this point in the medium term.
There is a huge pool of liquidity below the level and most likely, after a test of this zone, the price will start to strengthen again within the ascending channel.

23 nov. 2023

Transaction en cours

rebound from 0.5 fibo
Liquidity area not tested
there is a chance that the price may return to the support 1984