Cruel sell-off week, GOLD down more than 4%

18 nov.

XAUUSD This week suffered an extremely brutal sell-off, falling more than 4%, the largest decline since September 2023.

Trump is the biggest overall reason for XAUUSD plummet
Gold had a pretty good month in October, rising along with the US Dollar which was supported by expectations of a possible victory for Donald Trump.
Gold prices had previously even extended their gains despite a clear recovery in US Treasury yields across all maturities.

However, things have changed significantly since Trump was elected US president
The main concerns surround the possibility that the Trump administration will again use tariff measures. These measures will likely spur inflation again and could eventually prompt the Fed to reverse its ongoing easing cycle.
The main factor behind gold's surge earlier this year was ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas and the protracted war in Ukraine.
Whenever there is new news about the worsening conflict situation, investors flock to safe-haven assets such as gold. However, recently since Trump's victory, the geopolitical situation and conflicts are showing positive signs, which will create the basis for further gold selling pressure.

The Fed is also creating pressure on XAUUSD
Slightly hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week boosted the dollar and dampened interest in gold.
Powell said Thursday that the central bank is in no hurry to reduce borrowing costs while the economy continues to be strong, the labor market is solid and inflation is above its 2% target.

After Powell's speech, investors lowered the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, from 72% to 61.9%, according to CME Group's FedWatch data.

In addition to Powell's comments, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Finally, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee left open the possibility of a December Fed meeting, adding, "The debate over neutral interest rates could slow the pace of rate cuts."

However, at the end of last Friday's trading session, despite positive US data, the Dollar was still under pressure as market participants took profits before the weekend. That limited gold's decline after falling to a 2-month low of $2,536/oz.

Highlights this week
This week, gold traders will pay attention to data from the Federal Reserve, unemployment claims and the release of the S&P Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
Overall, this week will be a week with quite a few notable data and events, other than unexpected events such as "Trump is sick and Trump threatens to fire Jerome Powell".

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Although gold recovered very slightly this past weekend, it still ended the week with 6 consecutive days of decline.
Gold's recovery keeps it above the 1% Fibonacci level at $2,548 but there is still plenty of room ahead as the most recent pressures from the lower edge of the price channel and horizontal resistance at $2,588 join the Fibonacci level. A 0.786% retracement will still prevent the recovery of gold prices.

On the other hand, it still has a technical trend that is completely tilted towards a bearish outlook with the price channel being the main trend in the short term. In addition, the Relative Strength Index is still pointing down without reaching the oversold area, showing that there is still room for price decline ahead.

Looking ahead, as long as gold remains within the price channel and below the $2,600 raw price, price increases should only be considered short-term technical corrections without affecting the current primary trend to the downside.

The downtrend in gold prices will be noticed again by the positions listed below.
Support: 2,548 – 2,536 – 2,528USD
Resistance: 2,600USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2610

→Take Profit 1 2599
↨
→Take Profit 2 2594

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2521⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2515

→Take Profit 1 2526
↨
→Take Profit 2 2531

18 nov.

Note

This week, the market will focus on PMI data from major economies, inflation in the UK and questions about the possibility of a "soft landing" of the US economy. PMI and CPI data will be important factors in determining global growth and inflation trends amid current uncertainty.

18 nov.

Transaction en cours

Plan SELL +30pips close a part move SL to entry.🔥

18 nov.

Note

Gold increased to above 2,610 USD/oz

19 nov.

Note

At the end of the trading session on November 18, the spot gold contract increased 1.8% to 2,608.19 USD/oz, escaping the 2-month low recorded on November 14. Gold futures contracts added 1.7% to 2,614.60 USD/oz.

19 nov.

Note

19 nov.

Note

At the beginning of the week, the news from the White House + Biden side towards Russia was a bit hot.

Also contributing to GOLD's influence from the beginning of the week until now⚡️

20 nov.

Note

Gold prices rose for the second consecutive session on Tuesday (November 19), reaching their highest level in a week as rising Russia-Ukraine tensions led to a rush to safe-haven assets, in as investors wait for important signals about the interest rate plan of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

20 nov.

Note

Gold increased sharply to 2,650 USD/oz

21 nov.

Note

Gold prices increased for the third consecutive session and reached their highest level in a week on Wednesday (November 20), as investors sought safe havens from the precious metal amid geopolitical instability. increased due to escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

27 nov.

Note

After a drop of nearly 100 USD/oz on Monday, world gold prices changed to a state of struggle on Tuesday in the US market and this morning (November 27) in the Asian market. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon reduces the risk premium in gold prices, but the demand for "shelters" still remains at a certain level when the Russia-Ukraine war is still tense.