Technical Analysis of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Chart (1H Timeframe)

28 nov. 2024

The provided chart highlights a consolidation phase with potential bullish and bearish scenarios forming at key levels. Here's the detailed analysis:

Key Observations:
Trend Overview:

The price has been consolidating after a pullback from the resistance at $2,677.
Recent candles suggest indecision, with price respecting the $2,619–$2,635 zone as intraday support.
Support Zones:

$2,619–$2,621: Immediate support zone aligned with the NY Midnight Open level, acting as a potential demand area.
$2,602–$2,605: Next strong support where buyers previously stepped in.
$2,552–$2,560: Major demand zone and a stronger area of interest for buyers.
Resistance Zones:

$2,655–$2,660: First key resistance, aligned with liquidity voids from recent sell-offs.
$2,677–$2,680: A strong resistance zone, tested and rejected previously.
$2,711–$2,740: Major resistance and extended target for a bullish breakout.
Volume Analysis:

Strong selling pressure (e.g., Delta Volume: 188%) is visible around the $2,635–$2,640 region.
Buy-side orders show interest near $2,619, keeping price within range.
Bullish Scenario:
Conditions for a Bullish Move:

A confirmed break and close above $2,640, invalidating immediate selling pressure.
Sustained buying momentum toward liquidity pockets above $2,655.
Entry Points:

Aggressive Entry: Enter near the support zone around $2,619–$2,621 with a stop-loss below $2,610.
Conservative Entry: Buy on a breakout and retest above $2,640, confirming bullish momentum.
Exit Points (Take Profit):

First Target: $2,655 (liquidity void resistance).
Second Target: $2,677–$2,680 (strong resistance zone).
Final Target: $2,711–$2,740 (extended bullish target).
Invalidation:

A breakdown below $2,610, signaling further downside potential.
Bearish Scenario:
Conditions for a Bearish Move:

Price fails to break above $2,640 or $2,655, confirming strong selling pressure.
A confirmed breakdown below $2,619, opening the path for further downside.
Entry Points:

Aggressive Entry: Short near $2,640, where selling pressure is currently visible. Stop-loss above $2,645.
Conservative Entry: Short after a breakdown below $2,619, targeting lower supports.
Exit Points (Take Profit):

First Target: $2,602–$2,605 (next support level).
Second Target: $2,560 (key demand zone).
Final Target: $2,552 (major support and extended bearish target).
Invalidation:

A breakout above $2,645, invalidating bearish momentum.
Key Indicators to Watch:
Volume Behavior:

Watch for increasing buy-side volume at $2,619–$2,621, which would support the bullish case.
Sustained selling volume near $2,640 or a breakdown below $2,619 would confirm bearish momentum.
Price Action:

A breakout or rejection near the resistance at $2,640–$2,655 will determine the short-term trend.
Lower lows below $2,619 would signal continuation of the bearish trend.
Liquidity Voids:

Price action near the liquidity void at $2,655 will offer clues about the strength of buyers or sellers.
Summary of Probable Entry & Exit Points:
Scenario Entry Zone Stop-Loss Target Levels
Bullish $2,619–$2,621 (Aggressive) or above $2,640 (Conservative) $2,610 $2,655, $2,677, $2,711
Bearish $2,640 (Aggressive) or below $2,619 (Conservative) $2,645 $2,605, $2,560, $2,552
Conclusion:
Bullish Outlook: A breakout above $2,640 can lead to a rally toward $2,655–$2,680 and potentially higher.
Bearish Outlook: Failure to break above $2,640 or a breakdown below $2,619 may lead to declines toward $2,605–$2,552.
Traders should closely monitor price reactions at $2,619 and $2,640 to confirm the next move while managing risk with tight stop-losses.