Still no confirmation for Selling order

5 sept. 2022

Gold's general commentary: Gold has broken the Hourly 4 chart’s Descending Channel and altered the #4-session Selling spree on Gold, but still remains on #3-Week consecutive Selling spree. As Gold didn’t recovered Resistance belt on one try / hit after decent decline, Selling continuation is on the cards, with today's #1,710.80 - #1,712.80 being the Higher Low’s Upper zone Resistance zone which, if broken can continue the relief rally, otherwise Gold is timed for a downswing. Of course much is attributed to the ongoing #1.7 Trillion planned infrastructure spending whose late optimistic developments (deal hopes) are now pulling the Price-action back downwards (assisting downside aswell the debacle on Core CPI report). I have the next Support at #1,692.80 where the Price-action should meet the Higher Low’s Lower zone (many similarities with May #9 fractal) and continue the decline towards #1,678.80 (below #1,700.80) pressure point. I expect my Target to be realized on late week's phase.


Technical analysis: The Price-action instantly surged as despite the positive NFP outcome, the DX remains Neutral / Bullish for the session, however appears to be reversing on a Daily chart’s series of Engulfing Bullish candles (I mentioned that it should rise gradually within #10 sessions on my remarks). In addition regarding Daily chart basis, market sentiment appears to have regained the standard correlation but I need to allow enough time (another #1 session including today’s one to have a clearer picture). #1,692.80 will still be tested into next week’s variance (if DX don’t disappoint, since the news relationship appears now to be inverse, possibly good news raise accelerated rate hike concerns and on top of that, Euro is losing which can add confidence to DX). I rely on the Weekly chart’s Technicals at hand suggesting that the Lower pressure point of #1,678.80 will be tested. The Price-action is attempting a Double Top, (November #9 resemblance) on Oversold Hourly chart’s. I expect the multi-Month re-Sell zone to take control again and reverse the Price around the #1,700.80 mark as a first Target, then #1,692.80 in extension. This rise on Gold in form of a Buying pressure can be also linked to the fact that the DX was on the back foot, causing capital exodus from shares to the safe-haven of Gold. Within #5-session horizon, I am expecting #1,678.80 to be met.


My position: Even though I am heavily on Selling side, Gold is not losing value as much as DX does, indicating elemental Volatile trend. I am still not confident with entering the market, since (even from Friday's session), I am waiting for #1,700.80 mark break to make my move. I am still not confident with entering.