GOLD → How can NFP affect the price of gold?

2 févr.

XAUUSD is updating highs but continues to be inside a sideways movement limited by resistance at 2065 and support at 2020. The market is in the waiting phase for NFP.



Quite an interesting situation this week. The asset is forming a retest of 2062 resistance on D1, but below is a strong support at 2050-2048, which hides a large pool of liquidity behind it. There is a chance that the price may retest this area before or on the backdrop of the news. In the mid-term, it is expected to rise as we have a chance to see NFP below 216K published in December. Technically, gold is in consolidation between 2058 - 2048, a classic situation where the market does not know what will happen.

The price is restrained by the resistance of the range 2058-2064, if this area is broken, the distribution to 2078-2088 may be formed. And already below 2030 a panic zone is formed, which, from a theoretical point of view, the price can also test in order to get rid of an unnecessary passenger before further movement of the train.

Support levels: 2048.8, 2039.4, 2030
Resistance levels: 2058.3, 2064

Based on the data, we have a high but not 100% chance that NFP may show bearish data for the US market, which could be positive for gold. But! The unpredictability of the news is not canceled!

DXY GOLD GC1! MGC1!

Regards R. Linda!

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Note

Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of employed persons in the previous month, excluding the agricultural industry

A stronger than expected reading should be positive for the USD.
A lower than expected reading should be a negative for the dollar.

But, the last two Initial Jobless Claims reports (the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week) have been negative and the number of such claims has been rising in the background.

Overall, this could have a negative impact on NFP.
Analysts expect 187K instead of 216K (for December). In general, this is already a negative scenario, but the price behavior depends more on the actual data.
If the data will be higher than 187K, the dollar may react by strengthening, and the indicator below 187K, respectively, by falling.

Also, at 13:30 GMT will be published:
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) - expected 0.3% instead of 0.4% (downgrade)
Unemployment Rate (Jan) - expected 3.8% instead of 3.7% (analysts expect bearish data)

2 févr.

Note

It makes sense that rising unemployment reduces the number of jobs.
We should have gotten an NFP in the neighborhood of 160K-190K based on initial jobless claims.

But apparently there's another reason, as we were discussing with one of my subscribers:

The presidential race before the US election. Accordingly, the task of the current president is to create the appearance of economic recovery, which is what we see - regulators and organizations are trying to paint a pretty picture in order to increase their personal ratings.
In addition to the above and a number of other nuances, we can conclude that today's NFP is purely manipulative wagering in the current political situation

2 févr.

Note

Accordingly. The market continues to form a sideways trend.
Closing of today's price near support may predetermine further decline beyond 2031 or 2016.