Three support levels and three types of rhythms for gold.

13 mars 2023

On the night of the February non-farm payroll report, gold plummeted with a large volume decline, but on the night of the March non-farm payroll report, it saw the opposite, with gold continuing to rise significantly with a large volume increase.

Entering March, gold maintained its overall sweeping upward momentum. However, last week, due to news on Tuesday, the price dropped sharply, experiencing an unexpected dip. After the dip, it bounced back, relying on the 1810 level to reclaim 1830, and then continued to push up above 1830, breaking through the high point of 1858 and rising further. Today, the price continued to rise and found its way to the 1894 area. With such a market situation, the focus is on defending the high and low points and its sustainability. This also verifies the range of 1890-1900 that I mentioned last week, which only came faster than expected, resulting in a gap around 1870 that needs our attention.

From the trend perspective, gold relied on the four-hour lifeline to find its position on the four-hour trend line, as well as the point of the upward gap, which is also a back-tested support area at the 1872 level.

Therefore, for gold in the future, we should pay attention to three support areas and look at three different market rhythms.

Firstly, there is a strong upward trend with the four-hour purple trend line serving as a support at the early low point of 1872. The price holds onto the support and continues to climb, searching for resistance levels at 1890 and 1894, and seeking to break through the high point to find the next resistance range of 1907-1908.

Secondly, there is a sweeping upward trend with the top and bottom conversion position at the 1858-1856 range, which is also the support point area determined by the last pullback in the closing moments of Friday. It is used as a basis to observe a relatively strong sweeping upward trend.

Thirdly, there is an extremely sweeping and volatile upward trend with multiple supports stacked at the 1836-1833 range. This is quite awkward as the final result is still a rise, but it requires a dip before it can stand up. This is also the starting point of the rise after the non-farm data was announced, serving as the current long defense area.

By clearly understanding the meaning of the corresponding positions, in the subsequent market situation, holding onto the support and maintaining the corresponding rhythm is essential.

Currently, the price is primarily focusing on the first scenario, using the low point and the four-hour purple trend line at 1872 as support, with the idea of continuing to climb. Based on this strategy, a long position at 1874-1872 is recommended. The price has just pulled back to the entry point, and the long position should be held while observing the resistance level above.

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