Stronger growth, slower policy rate cuts
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Strong data leads to upgrades to growth projections for Canada and the US by 2024.
Strong growth comes with discovery costs. Enjoying the easing of growth in the United States, stronger growth is leading us to push the first reduction into the third quarter of this year to reach a total cut intensity of 100 basis points.
Stronger growth in Canada, strengthening wages combined with falling productivity and still-elevated fundamentals all suggest the Bank of Canada will delay cutting interest rates until the end of the third quarter. We now Expect only a 75 basis point cut this year.
In both countries, growth dynamics and capacity detect that even these revised forecasts may be too optimistic about expected interest rate cuts. Further strength or delayed deflation may not result in any cuts this year. This is certainly not our expectation, but it is a bummer from our perspective.
Strong growth comes with discovery costs. Enjoying the easing of growth in the United States, stronger growth is leading us to push the first reduction into the third quarter of this year to reach a total cut intensity of 100 basis points.
Stronger growth in Canada, strengthening wages combined with falling productivity and still-elevated fundamentals all suggest the Bank of Canada will delay cutting interest rates until the end of the third quarter. We now Expect only a 75 basis point cut this year.
In both countries, growth dynamics and capacity detect that even these revised forecasts may be too optimistic about expected interest rate cuts. Further strength or delayed deflation may not result in any cuts this year. This is certainly not our expectation, but it is a bummer from our perspective.
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