XAU/USD Trading Session Outlook: Monday Projections

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XAU/USD Trading Session Outlook: Monday Projections and Key Levels Analysis

Friday’s Closing Analysis (November 1, 2024)

• Closing Sentiment: On Friday, November 1, 2024, XAU/USD closed at approximately $2,734.47, below the New York VWAP of $2,745.91, and marginally above critical support at $2,733.04 (London Session Low).
• Bearish Pressure: The price action throughout Friday remained bearish, as the market failed to break above significant resistance levels such as the Tokyo VWAP at $2,752.20, indicating sustained selling pressure.
• Key Support and Resistance:
• Immediate Support Levels: $2,733.04 (London Session Low) and $2,730.66 (Bollinger Band Lower)
• Resistance Levels: $2,745.91 (New York VWAP), $2,749.54 (London VWAP), and $2,752.20 (Tokyo VWAP)

Monday’s Tokyo Session Projection (November 4, 2024)

1. Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation

• Expectation: If the bearish momentum from Friday persists into Monday’s Tokyo session, XAU/USD may experience further downside movement. Continued selling pressure would likely push the price to retest lower support levels.
• Key Levels:
• Initial Target: $2,733.04 (Friday’s significant support level). A break below this level could drive the price to the next support at $2,730.66 (Bollinger Band Lower).
• Extended Downside Target: $2,720.00, a previously significant support area.

• Strategy:
• Sell Stop Order: Place a Sell Stop at $2,732.50, just below $2,733.04, to capitalize on a potential breakdown.
• Stop Loss: $2,740.00, above resistance levels to limit risk.
• Take Profit: $2,720.00, capturing the full bearish move.

2. Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal

• Expectation: If buyers perceive value at lower levels or if there is a fundamental catalyst, a bullish reversal may occur. However, the price needs to reclaim and hold above key resistance areas to confirm the reversal.
• Key Levels:
• Immediate Resistance: $2,745.91 (New York VWAP). A sustained move above this level would signal potential bullish momentum.
• Confirmation Level: $2,752.20 (Tokyo VWAP). A breakout here would reinforce a bullish case.

• Strategy:
• Buy Stop Order: Place a Buy Stop at $2,746.00, just above $2,745.91, to catch an upward move.
• Stop Loss: $2,738.00, just below support to manage risk.
• Take Profit: $2,752.00, targeting the Tokyo VWAP level for a potential retracement.

3. Scenario 3: Consolidation

• Expectation: If no clear directional momentum develops, XAU/USD could consolidate between $2,733.04 (support) and $2,745.91 (resistance). An external catalyst, such as economic data or geopolitical news, may be required to initiate a breakout.

• Strategy:
• Breakout Setup: Position Buy Stop and Sell Stop orders around these key levels to capitalize on a breakout.
• Stop Loss: 15-20 pips from the entry to manage risk effectively.
• Take Profit: 30-40 pips depending on the direction and strength of the breakout.

Overall Sentiment for Monday (November 4, 2024)

• Bearish Bias: The overall trend remains bearish if XAU/USD continues to trade below $2,745.91 (New York VWAP) and fails to reclaim $2,749.54 (London VWAP) or $2,752.20 (Tokyo VWAP). The key downside levels to watch are $2,733.04 and $2,730.66, with further declines likely if these support zones break.
• Potential Bullish Reversal: A break and hold above $2,745.91 could suggest a shift in sentiment, with $2,752.20 acting as a key confirmation level for a bullish move.
• Range Trading: Prepare for possible consolidation if no decisive movement occurs, especially if Monday opens with low volatility.

Important Note: Stay vigilant for any economic events or news releases over the weekend that could impact the gold market, and be prepared to adjust your strategy accordingly.