2.28 Gold Trading Strategy Analysis

il y a 21 heures

On Thursday (February 27), gold accelerated its decline and once lost the 2870 mark, mainly under the pressure of a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, while investors awaited key inflation reports to assess the Fed's policy path. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.6%, further away from the recent 11-week low, after U.S. President Trump's vague promise to impose tariffs on the European Union and further postponement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico caused market volatility. Trump said on Tuesday that "the 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico will take effect as planned on March 4", and on Wednesday he changed his words and said "it may be postponed to April 2", while threatening to impose a 25% tariff on the European Union. The dollar rose slightly as U.S. President Trump's recent remarks on his trade policy plans have increased market uncertainty.



Despite the rebound in the dollar, the market is still betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year (the first in July and the second in October) due to increasing concerns about economic slowdown. The U.S. consumer confidence index plummeted to 98.3 on Tuesday (expected 102.5), the biggest drop since August 2021. The rebound in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold. A slight recovery in the dollar and Treasury yields has weighed on gold to some extent, but the overall uptrend in gold remains intact. Several Fed officials will speak later in the day to provide the market with more insights into possible rate cuts by the Fed this year. The market will next focus on the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which will be released on Friday. According to a Reuters poll, the market generally expects the monthly PCE index to be 0.3%, the same as in December 2024. The market is currently very sensitive to growth concerns, especially after last week's dismal U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. If the PCE result is stronger than expected and suggests that the Fed will not cut interest rates in the near future, it may have a negative impact on gold. Gold is seen as a safe haven against political risks and inflation, but higher interest rates will reduce the appeal of this non-yielding asset. Meanwhile, Russian and American diplomats will hold talks in Istanbul aimed at resuming their respective diplomatic missions, which is seen as a step towards ending the war in Ukraine.


Gold market trend analysis:

Gold technical analysis: Gold finally fell. From the trading strategy of last weekend, our team has been reminding people to pay attention to this week's big waterfall. Traders who follow our trading strategy have made enough profits. The whole day has been emphasizing that the top structure of gold has been built. Today, gold fell like a waterfall, breaking through the 2870 support line, and the top pattern was officially established. Gold is getting weaker and weaker, and rebounds are opportunities for shorts.


Gold's 1-hour moving average continues to diverge downward to form a dead cross. Gold has refreshed its low again. Gold's downward space has opened up again. Gold shorts have just begun, and rebounds are opportunities for shorts. On the whole, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends rebound shorting as the main strategy for short-term gold operations today, and callback longing as the auxiliary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2888-2890 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2830-2834 support line.

il y a 10 heures

Transaction en cours

Gold trading suggestions for the European session on February 28

1. Don't guess the top when the price is rising, and don't guess the bottom when it is falling. You can be right many times by following the trend, and you can be wrong once when the trend changes. Counter trend interception can be wrong many times, but the trend change can be right once. The main reasons for the sharp decline of gold in the past few days are ① The current easing of geopolitical risks ② The uncertainty of the Fed's path ③ The large-scale top divergence forms a technical sell-off.

2. The big negative of the daily K breaks through the ma10 moving average continuously, and the middle track supports it. The short-selling momentum is very strong. The trend is the direction of entry. The current general direction is short-selling. The operation is mainly short-selling on the rebound. After the strong decline in Asian early trading, there is a high probability of further testing 2850 below. There is no rebound in the weak position. The European market continues to trade sideways below 2870, and the US market chooses the opportunity to go short.

3. Today's high point of 2885 is a watershed. The operation below is a short-selling idea. If it stabilizes, it will turn into a shock.

Key position: Pressure around 2870-2880, waiting for breakthrough or reversal signal near key position

Operation suggestion (valid for the first touch)

Short position around 2875-2870, stop loss 6 points, look down to 2860 2850