XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!

2 oct. 2022

KOG Report:

In last weeks KOG Report we said we would be expecting more declines in Gold and would be looking at the higher levels to either short from or to target for the longs. We gave the resistance levels of 1660-65 and above that 1680-85 for potential targets or levels we wanted to short from. We wanted the lower levels of 1660-35 and below that 1615-10 where we felt we would get the long opportunities or the short targets from above. Price started the decline from the early weeks sessions and declined just below the 1620 level before bulls stepped in and gave us the push to upside that we saw during the latter part of the week. Daily updates added to the analysis ensured the levels were identified and the moves hopefully didn’t catch traders out.

So, what can we expect in the week ahead?

We’ll remain with the same set up and plan for now, so not much has changed from the previous weeks analysis. We are still bearish expecting a small run at some point to break above the 1700 level short-term. We would say caution, as there are some signs of a bullish reversal, however, there is a big mess left below which will need cleaning up. For this reason, we will stick with the same plan as last week where we have the levels of resistance at 1660-65 and above that 1680-85 with the lower levels of support now standing at 1630-35 and below that 1610-05. Although this is a potential double top on the hourly, we want to see how the market opens before deciding which way to go first.

So, as we used to in previous KOG Reports, we will give you two scenarios this week:

Scenario 1:

Price pushes up in the early sessions, first resistance level is 1665-7, if we see resistance here we feel there is a short-term opportunity to short the market initially into the 1655-50 level where we will want to see a reaction in price. Break of this level and then we can start thinking about targets 1630-35 and below that 1620. The resistance level higher above is the 1680-85 level which for us would be ideal, resistance here and we again, would like to test the short trade for the fist target region of 1650 and below that 1635.

Scenario 2:

We see a decline in price from the opening and early sessions. Our first point of interest is that 1650-55 level where price is likely to find support. IF this support holds then we feel an opportunity to go long on the market to target that 1680-85 level will be on the cards. A break of the support will lead to further declines so we will look lower to go long.

In summary:

For this week, we’re ideally looking for the 1680-85 level to take a position to short the market with the levels that have been mentioned above as the targets. If we see more bearish action in the early parts of the week we will trade it level to level on the way down with the plan for one of the lower support levels to hold before we then attempt to go long again.

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As always, trade safe.

KOG