GOLD Analysis 09/03-13/03
The strong growth rate of jobs in February with the employment of an additional 273K jobs. The amendments to January and December data brought an average hiring rate over the past three months to 243K jobs. Although the labor market is in a good position now, we will have to wait for the March data before we can assess the impact of coronavirus on the US labor market.
It is worth noting that the three major central banks announced a rate cut in the same week, with one of them being an emergency rate cut and none other than the Fed. of the global economic recession that is worsening globally and the psychological risk will continue to increase with the spread of coronavirus, endangering business operations globally.
There is currently a high probability valuation that the Fed will lower the interest rate by 50 basis points in the upcoming 18 March meeting, and even begin to price the probability of a 75 basis point drop. Most recently, the Fed has performed exactly as the market expected. Anyway, we need to ask the question: if the Federal Reserve does not plan to lower deep interest rates in the upcoming session, why should they urgently lower 50 points before the meeting.
The Fed cut its operating rate, which makes gold the most benefited from most assets. Bond yields fell sharply showing deflation and we expect the Fed to act through easing.
Gold has reached the highest closing level since the global financial crisis due to coronavirus outbreak and aroused the risk of economic recession.
Spot gold price soared when US Treasury bond interest rates fell after cutting emergency FOMC interest rates without easing market turmoil.
The recovery of gold bullion is likely to expand to a record-closing price in 2011 if the stock market endures and sky-high volatility lasts much longer.
A leap in spot gold price action in the last five trading sessions has pushed this precious metal to a new high for the year and closed at its highest level since January 2013. Gold prices soared 5.5 % last week, boosted by a staggering decline in Treasury yields and volatility, is the largest weekly increase since October 2011. Investor sentiment and GDP growth prospects Global has been battered by the coronavirus epidemic that started in Wuhan, China almost two months ago. The demand for safe-haven assets has risen to meet, which has caused a recent collapse in interest rates and a rise in the price of gold.
The Fed is expected to lower its policy rate target to 63 basis points at the next monetary policy update following the Fed fund's future valuation. There are 88 basis points of the Fed rate cut by the end of this year. This downward trend of FOMC odds, if continued, could bring gold to a record high in August 2011. Next week the European Central Bank - is expected to make its own interest rate decision. on next Thursday, March 12 at. The ECB board is expected to keep the key interest rate in line with market consensus at 0.5% .And since the central bank bought sovereign bonds through the quantitative easing program, so the additional easing options are relatively limited. However, when coronaviruses started to cause an epidemic in Italy to rise and restrain the EU, there was a decline in Eurozone inflation expectations and a noticeable risk of economic recession. In turn, this could lead to the action of the ECB, which could help strengthen the gold bull's momentum.
Technical analysis: (TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
Gold prices closed the week for just under $ 1,674 in a turbulent week that saw a surge in safe-haven assets. After 3 consecutive strong gains for the week. Technical confluence shows that The golden boy is waiting for the important resistance at $ 1,689, which was the high of the previous month. However, another barrier waiting for the golden boy at $ 1,692 may prove important for a move. Last week, after seeing a new peak at 1692 without seeing a strong breakthrough, the price reaction saw a decline. Here the supply zone H4 price really is being respected. In principle, as well as long-term, whenever there is a candle sticking feet, breaking the old peak created earlier, that price will decrease. I will weaken. Ie it will make a new peak soon.
As for the short-term GOLD next week. With the candle closing week 1674 below the supply zone, H1 began to accumulate, H4 is showing signs of decline and increase again.
Because the amplitude of fluctuations is quite wide, so the upcoming trade idea we have will have 2 scenarios for your reference.
Scenario 1:
Light sell soup around 1686-1689 SL 1695 TP 1657 (Personal opinions for reference only)
Scenario 2:
Buy according to the times frame H4 has formed a demand zone. H4 has an inverted head and shoulders pattern, a trendy buy trend trendline demand zone.
Buy GOLD 1638-1640 TP 1680 TP2 1730
It is worth noting that the three major central banks announced a rate cut in the same week, with one of them being an emergency rate cut and none other than the Fed. of the global economic recession that is worsening globally and the psychological risk will continue to increase with the spread of coronavirus, endangering business operations globally.
There is currently a high probability valuation that the Fed will lower the interest rate by 50 basis points in the upcoming 18 March meeting, and even begin to price the probability of a 75 basis point drop. Most recently, the Fed has performed exactly as the market expected. Anyway, we need to ask the question: if the Federal Reserve does not plan to lower deep interest rates in the upcoming session, why should they urgently lower 50 points before the meeting.
The Fed cut its operating rate, which makes gold the most benefited from most assets. Bond yields fell sharply showing deflation and we expect the Fed to act through easing.
Gold has reached the highest closing level since the global financial crisis due to coronavirus outbreak and aroused the risk of economic recession.
Spot gold price soared when US Treasury bond interest rates fell after cutting emergency FOMC interest rates without easing market turmoil.
The recovery of gold bullion is likely to expand to a record-closing price in 2011 if the stock market endures and sky-high volatility lasts much longer.
A leap in spot gold price action in the last five trading sessions has pushed this precious metal to a new high for the year and closed at its highest level since January 2013. Gold prices soared 5.5 % last week, boosted by a staggering decline in Treasury yields and volatility, is the largest weekly increase since October 2011. Investor sentiment and GDP growth prospects Global has been battered by the coronavirus epidemic that started in Wuhan, China almost two months ago. The demand for safe-haven assets has risen to meet, which has caused a recent collapse in interest rates and a rise in the price of gold.
The Fed is expected to lower its policy rate target to 63 basis points at the next monetary policy update following the Fed fund's future valuation. There are 88 basis points of the Fed rate cut by the end of this year. This downward trend of FOMC odds, if continued, could bring gold to a record high in August 2011. Next week the European Central Bank - is expected to make its own interest rate decision. on next Thursday, March 12 at. The ECB board is expected to keep the key interest rate in line with market consensus at 0.5% .And since the central bank bought sovereign bonds through the quantitative easing program, so the additional easing options are relatively limited. However, when coronaviruses started to cause an epidemic in Italy to rise and restrain the EU, there was a decline in Eurozone inflation expectations and a noticeable risk of economic recession. In turn, this could lead to the action of the ECB, which could help strengthen the gold bull's momentum.
Technical analysis: (TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
Gold prices closed the week for just under $ 1,674 in a turbulent week that saw a surge in safe-haven assets. After 3 consecutive strong gains for the week. Technical confluence shows that The golden boy is waiting for the important resistance at $ 1,689, which was the high of the previous month. However, another barrier waiting for the golden boy at $ 1,692 may prove important for a move. Last week, after seeing a new peak at 1692 without seeing a strong breakthrough, the price reaction saw a decline. Here the supply zone H4 price really is being respected. In principle, as well as long-term, whenever there is a candle sticking feet, breaking the old peak created earlier, that price will decrease. I will weaken. Ie it will make a new peak soon.
As for the short-term GOLD next week. With the candle closing week 1674 below the supply zone, H1 began to accumulate, H4 is showing signs of decline and increase again.
Because the amplitude of fluctuations is quite wide, so the upcoming trade idea we have will have 2 scenarios for your reference.
Scenario 1:
Light sell soup around 1686-1689 SL 1695 TP 1657 (Personal opinions for reference only)
Scenario 2:
Buy according to the times frame H4 has formed a demand zone. H4 has an inverted head and shoulders pattern, a trendy buy trend trendline demand zone.
Buy GOLD 1638-1640 TP 1680 TP2 1730
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