BTC Analysis 4/20/20
Hey guys, wanted to run down what my thoughts are on BTC. I will try and keep it simple with what I am currently seeing on the charts...
After our massive drop a couple weeks ago, we have bounced back fairly well from the mid-3000's up to ~7450, and back down to around 6800 where we currently sit. Volume on the bounce was good, but has been declining since. The bulls managed to get it up to 7400 but couldnt break it, so we've been trading in a pretty tight range for the last two weeks.
We're making higher lows, but the low volume and inability to break above 7400 could cause another drop, just how far I am not sure. I think a break of 6600 to the downside could cause a slip to the high 5000's or a nasty drop could put us right back in that sweet 3800-4300 buy zone (red box). Another solid bounce here would have me very optimistic, especially with divergent RSI.
On the flip side, if we manage to break above 7400 with good volume, I would expect to see the next resistance around the 8200-8700 area (green box). The VPVR confirms this. A push past this would see us potentially re-testing the yearly high. With the halving right around the corner, this is a very real scenario. Time will tell on this one.
My Trend Catcher Strategy is still long from ~6650, and partial profits taken at 7400. Green zone would be another partial profit take.However, due to the multiple rejections and slowing momentum, I am expecting the Trend Catcher to swing negative if we see 1 or 2 more red days. In which case I will be looking to Short below 6600.
Any questions feel free to ask!
Thank you
After our massive drop a couple weeks ago, we have bounced back fairly well from the mid-3000's up to ~7450, and back down to around 6800 where we currently sit. Volume on the bounce was good, but has been declining since. The bulls managed to get it up to 7400 but couldnt break it, so we've been trading in a pretty tight range for the last two weeks.
We're making higher lows, but the low volume and inability to break above 7400 could cause another drop, just how far I am not sure. I think a break of 6600 to the downside could cause a slip to the high 5000's or a nasty drop could put us right back in that sweet 3800-4300 buy zone (red box). Another solid bounce here would have me very optimistic, especially with divergent RSI.
On the flip side, if we manage to break above 7400 with good volume, I would expect to see the next resistance around the 8200-8700 area (green box). The VPVR confirms this. A push past this would see us potentially re-testing the yearly high. With the halving right around the corner, this is a very real scenario. Time will tell on this one.
My Trend Catcher Strategy is still long from ~6650, and partial profits taken at 7400. Green zone would be another partial profit take.However, due to the multiple rejections and slowing momentum, I am expecting the Trend Catcher to swing negative if we see 1 or 2 more red days. In which case I will be looking to Short below 6600.
Any questions feel free to ask!
Thank you
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