Ripple - "Buy the rumor, sell the fact"
In our previous idea on Ripple, we stated that it was one of a few cryptocurrencies that failed to reach a new all-time high during the latest bull cycle. Additionally, we expressed our bearish views on it over the coming months, set price targets at 0.30 USD (medium-term) and 0.28 USD (long-term), and presented a conservative setup with two possible scenarios.
Since then, the price of XRPUSD has shot to the upside through the short-term resistance, which is a bullish development we previously outlined. Typically, such price action would invalidate our price targets on the downside for the short-term price target. However, fundamental factors (increasing interest rates and economic tightening) driving the primary trend have not changed, which allows us to stick to our price targets.
Indeed, the abrupt move accompanied news that came out regarding the legal case between RippleLab and the SEC. It took merely a few hours, and we are already noticing a wall of bullish posts forecasting the reversal of the primary trend and the beginning of a new bullish era. However, we have little faith in this thesis because of the slowing global economy and growing geopolitical problems coupled with risk aversion.
We acknowledge that thin volume can lead to a higher price in the short term. However, we think the rally will not sustain in the medium and long term. Furthermore, we believe the recent price action is just a short-lived hype like in the case of other cryptocurrencies that already underwent breakouts to the upside (which were dampened in XRP) from a wide range (in July and August).
As for the short-term, we do not know how much higher XRPUSD can go. However, we are already seeing several warning signs. Because of that, we will pay close attention to volume and price action. Other details are described below.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the conservative setup we showed on 8th September 2022. Since its introduction, the breakout to the upside took place, hitting a bullish trigger. Subsequently, the price ripped up more than 40%.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is overbought. MACD and Stochastic are bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the price action that followed since the introduction of our setup. Declining volume after the breakout serves as a warning sign, hinting at the evaporation of buyers after the steep climb in price.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are also bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 shows a similar decline in volume on the hourly chart of XRPUSD (this time on Binance instead of Bitstamp).
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Since then, the price of XRPUSD has shot to the upside through the short-term resistance, which is a bullish development we previously outlined. Typically, such price action would invalidate our price targets on the downside for the short-term price target. However, fundamental factors (increasing interest rates and economic tightening) driving the primary trend have not changed, which allows us to stick to our price targets.
Indeed, the abrupt move accompanied news that came out regarding the legal case between RippleLab and the SEC. It took merely a few hours, and we are already noticing a wall of bullish posts forecasting the reversal of the primary trend and the beginning of a new bullish era. However, we have little faith in this thesis because of the slowing global economy and growing geopolitical problems coupled with risk aversion.
We acknowledge that thin volume can lead to a higher price in the short term. However, we think the rally will not sustain in the medium and long term. Furthermore, we believe the recent price action is just a short-lived hype like in the case of other cryptocurrencies that already underwent breakouts to the upside (which were dampened in XRP) from a wide range (in July and August).
As for the short-term, we do not know how much higher XRPUSD can go. However, we are already seeing several warning signs. Because of that, we will pay close attention to volume and price action. Other details are described below.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the conservative setup we showed on 8th September 2022. Since its introduction, the breakout to the upside took place, hitting a bullish trigger. Subsequently, the price ripped up more than 40%.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is overbought. MACD and Stochastic are bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the price action that followed since the introduction of our setup. Declining volume after the breakout serves as a warning sign, hinting at the evaporation of buyers after the steep climb in price.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are also bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 shows a similar decline in volume on the hourly chart of XRPUSD (this time on Binance instead of Bitstamp).
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
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