Fed funds futures pricing in 5 rate hikes in 2022?

4 févr. 2022

Economists are forecasting anything from 3 to 7 hikes in 2022 while the Fed funds futures market appear to be pricing in at least 5 rate hikes in 2022, starting with the first, a 25bp hike, at the March FOMC meeting. The Fed's current target range is 0 to 0.25%. March futures (ZQH2022) imply a rate of 0.23 suggesting that the lower target rate will be raised from 0 to 0.25.
Assuming the the Fed sticks with a 25bp increment, the futures currently are pricing in at least 5 hikes as we see May futures (ZQK2022) implying a rate of 0.565, July (ZQN2022) implying 0.79, October (ZQV2022) with 1.06 & Dec (ZQZ2022) with 1.235.

10 févr. 2022

Note

The futures market is now looking at a Fed target rate of at least 1.5% by the end of 2022.